Match Info

Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 30

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday

Location: Jenner Park (Barry)

Referee: McInch A. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	S4C Clic, S4C


	Barry Town United		Newtown

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3
	2.08	3.45	3.2
	2.1	3.46	3.32	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.1
	2.03	3.6	3.21
	2.08	3.45	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.59)	3.46 ↓ (4.41)	3.17 ↓ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barry Town United
44.4%

Draw
26.6%

Newtown
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

21%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

20.2%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barry Town United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barry Town United's form might have worsened.

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newtown's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barry Town United than the current prediction. (+16.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barry Town United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newtown, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Barry Town United - Newtown Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Armstrong L. (G) 17. Cuddihy O. 2. George M. 22. Hulbert O. 44. Kavanagh R. 18. Owen Ieuan Gwyn 8. Richards E. 24. Richards W. 4. Sainty C. 21. Williams E. 14. Willmott R.	1. Schwarzer J. (G) 8. Evans R. 24. Hughes G. 4. Martin D. 9. Oswell J. 26. Rainbird J. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. (C) 18. Tahra W. 14. Williams A. 31. Williams C.
Substitutes
27. Beynon J. 40. Bright H. 16. Lewis A. 7. McLaggon K. 1. Rees L. (G) 26. Starling L.	16. Downs D. 35. Howells H. 32. Roberts A. 23. Sharp O. 22. Smith C. 12. Torry D. 13. Ussher S. (G)
Coaches
Legg A.	McKenzie C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Tahra W. ↓, Torry D. ↑,
19', 1 - 0, Hulbert O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 2 - 0, Kavanagh R. ⚽,
65', Torry D. ↓, Sharp O. ↑,
65', Rainbird J. ↓, Smith C. ↑,
71', Owen Ieuan Gwyn ↓, McLaggon K. ↑,
86', Armstrong L. 🟨,
87', Richards E. ↓, Lewis A. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Williams A. ⚽,
90+5', Hulbert O. 🟨,
90+5', Kavanagh R. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barry Town won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Barry Town will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Barry Town won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 23:31 (average 1.2:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Barry Town won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11:12 (average 1.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barry Town United
Welsh Cymru Premier
22.03.25	Flint Town United - Barry Town United	3:2 ✺
11.03.25	Barry Town United - Aberystwyth Town	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Barry Town United	3:4 ✺
22.02.25	Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	0:2 ✺
08.02.25	Newtown - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWLT
- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
21.03.25	Newtown - Gap Connahs Quay	2:3 ✺
11.03.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Newtown	1:1 ✺
07.03.25	Newtown - Flint Town United	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1 ✺
08.02.25	Newtown - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
08.02.25	Newtown - Barry Town United	1:1
15.10.24	Newtown - Barry Town United	2:4
26.08.24	Barry Town United - Newtown	1:2
06.01.24	Barry Town United - Newtown	4:0
16.09.23	Newtown - Barry Town United	2:0
04.12.21	Newtown - Barry Town United	2:1
02.10.21	Barry Town United - Newtown	0:3

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