Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 29

Date: 21 March 2025, Friday

Location: Latham Park (Newtown)

Referee: Petch M. (Wal)


	Newtown		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.72
	2.7	3.35	2.45
	2.74	3.31	2.51	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.5
	2.65	3.24	2.48
	2.7	3.35	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.5)	3.35 ↑ (3.3)	2.35 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newtown
32.4%

Draw
27.9%

Gap Connahs Quay
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

26.8%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

26.4%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newtown's performance.

Gap Connahs Quay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gap Connahs Quay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newtown that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gap Connahs Quay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Newtown - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Newtown will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Connahs Quay will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ussher S. (G) 24. Hughes G. 4. Martin D. 9. Oswell J. 26. Rainbird J. 23. Sharp O. 22. Smith C. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. 14. Williams A. 31. Williams C.	31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 11. Bratley C. 2. Disney J. 6. Edwards K. 14. Edwards N. 17. Hughes R. 7. Kenny J. 3. Marriott Ch. 5. Nash B. 22. Poole D. 18. Woodcock M.
Substitutes
20. Harries J. 33. Hollinshead T. 34. Howells H. 35. McCann A. 1. Nazaru A. (G) 18. Tahra W. 12. Torry D.	48. Berry T. 42. Morris H. 25. Owens K. 4. Roberts D. 20. Rushton J. (G) 21. Williams A. 8. Wright O.
Coaches
McKenzie C.	Paynter B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Hughes R. (Pen),
43', 0 - 2, Kenny J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Smith C. ↓, Tahra W. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Martin D. ⚽,
58', Nash B. 🟨,
60', Martin D. 🟨,
66', Hughes G. 🟨,
66', 1 - 3, Nash B. ⚽,
69', Woodcock M. ↓, Roberts D. ↑,
71', 2 - 3, Oswell J. ⚽,
77', Marriott Ch. 🟨,
85', 🟨,
85', Sharp O. ↓, Hollinshead T. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newtown won 0.

Recent matches Newtown is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Connahs Quay in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Newtown could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Connahs Quay is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Newtown won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 14:36 (average 0.7:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Newtown won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 7:19 (average 0.8:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.03.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Newtown	1:1 ✺
07.03.25	Newtown - Flint Town United	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1 ✺
08.02.25	Newtown - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTWTL
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh FA Cup
15.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Llanelli	2:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Flint Town United	4:0 ✺
07.03.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Aberystwyth Town	3:0 ✺
22.02.25	Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	0:2 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
16.02.25	Caerau Ely - Gap Connahs Quay	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
01.02.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	1:0
30.11.24	Newtown - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3
24.09.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	1:1
29.03.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	0:0
10.02.24	Newtown - Gap Connahs Quay	2:3
26.12.23	Newtown - Gap Connahs Quay	1:2
29.08.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	3:1

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