Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 26

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Park Avenue (Aberystwyth)

Referee: Jones J. A. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aberystwyth Town		Newtown

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.3	2.09
	3.24	3.6	2.09
	3.23	3.57	2.1	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.15
	3.11	3.38	2.15	Watch
	3.05	3.3	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.48)	3.41 ↓ (3.57)	2.11 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberystwyth Town
29.4%

Draw
27%

Newtown
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

25%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

23%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberystwyth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aberystwyth Town's form might have worsened.

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aberystwyth Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newtown, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aberystwyth Town - Newtown Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Osment S. (G) 4. Bradford L. 16. Davies B. 7. Evans J. 9. Flint N. 17. Huxley C. 8. Lewis I. 27. Patterson R. 23. Sharif A. 6. Thorn J. 2. Walsh L.	1. Schwarzer J. (G) 8. Evans R. 11. Ismail Z. 4. Martin D. 9. Oswell J. 23. Sharp O. 22. Smith C. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. 14. Williams A. 31. Williams C.
Substitutes
22. Dafis G. 28. Darlington A. 26. Diboe C. 15. Duggan I. 1. Jones D. (G) 12. Mason T. 10. Owen J.	20. Harries J. 33. Hollinshead T. 24. Hughes G. 37. Reid R. 18. Tahra W. 12. Torry D. 13. Ussher S. (G)
Coaches
Corbisiero A.	McKenzie C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Oswell J. 🟨,
37', Flint N. 🟨,
45+2', Thorn J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Sharp O. ↓, Reid R. ↑,
72', Huxley C. ↓, Owen J. ↑,
75', 0 - 1, Oswell J. ⚽,
78', Evans J. 🟨,
80', Thorn J. 🟨,
83', Davies B. 🟨,
90', Sharif A. ↓, Darlington A. ↑,
90', Flint N. ↓, Dafis G. ↑,
90+3', Ismail Z. ↓, Tahra W. ↑,
90+3', Williams A. ↓, Hollinshead T. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 1.

The competitors look crappy now.

Aberystwyth could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Newtown will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 28:35 (average 1.4:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Aberystwyth won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 15:20 (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.02.25	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	2:0 ✺
01.02.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
24.01.25	Aberystwyth Town - Barry Town United	1:2 ✺
11.01.25	Aberystwyth Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:6 ✺
01.01.25	Haverfordwest County - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLLL
- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
08.02.25	Newtown - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	1:0 ✺
24.01.25	Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2 ✺
14.01.25	Newtown - Pen-y-Bont	1:2 ✺
04.01.25	The New Saints - Newtown	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
08.11.24	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	3:1
09.08.24	Newtown - Aberystwyth Town	4:1
14.11.23	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1
26.08.23	Newtown - Aberystwyth Town	0:0
30.12.22	Newtown - Aberystwyth Town	6:1
26.12.22	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	1:2
Welsh FA Cup
12.11.22	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	1:3

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