What is the expert prediction for Basel vs Aston Villa?

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Basel vs Aston Villa Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, December 11, 2025)

Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: St. Jakob-Park (Basel)

Referee: Meler H. U. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	Sporza, Sporza, VRT Canvas
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
France	Canal+ Live 3, New World TV
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Iceland	SÝN Sport, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Max, TV8
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	Canal+
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 3
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab
World	Sport 24 Extra


	Basel		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.2	1.73
	4.55	4.25	1.72
	4.68	4.09	1.73
	4.2	4.2	1.75	Watch
	4.33	3.9	1.7
	4.57	4.3	1.73
	4.75	4	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.47 ↑ (3.93)	4.13 ↓ (4.32)	1.72 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Basel
21.4%

Draw
23.1%

Aston Villa
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

21.9%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

21.9%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Basel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basel than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	8.3%	76.7%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Basel will win (votes: 9 - 15%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 46 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 66% – 87.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Aston Villa (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Basel (4.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (21 of 25 users predict this - 84%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Basel (votes: 8 - 23.5%). Aston Villa (votes: 26 - 76.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hitz M. (G) 6. Tsunemoto K. 32. Adjetey J. 24. Daniliuc F. 31. Schmid D. 5. Metinho 22. Leroy L. 14. Bacanin A. 11. Traore B. 10. Shaqiri X. (C) 7. Otele P.	40. Bizot M. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. (C) 3. Lindelof V. 12. Digne L. 29. Guessand E. 26. Bogarde L. 24. Onana A. 19. Sancho J. 10. Buendia E. 17. Malen D.
Substitutes
23. Ajeti Al. 26. Barisic A. 17. Broschinski M. 29. Cisse M. 39. Junior Ze 8. Koindredi K. 47. Pfeiffer T. (G) 27. Ruegg K. 21. Salah I. 13. Salvi M. (G) 19. Soticek M. 3. Vouilloz N.	16. Garcia A. 53. Hemmings G. 44. Kamara B. 22. Maatsen I. 7. McGinn J. 95. Oakley R. (G) 27. Rogers M. 8. Tielemans Y. 11. Watkins O. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Magnin L.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Guessand E. ⚽,
17', Cash M. 🟨,
34', 1 - 1, Daniliuc F. ⚽, Shaqiri X. (A),
35', Buendia E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Cash M. ↓, Tielemans Y. ↑,
53', 1 - 2, Tielemans Y. ⚽, Buendia E. (A),
62', Shaqiri X. ↓, Ajeti Al. ↑,
64', Sancho J. ↓, Watkins O. ↑,
64', Onana A. ↓, Kamara B. ↑,
64', Buendia E. ↓, Rogers M. ↑,
72', Leroy L. 🟨,
74', Traore B. ↓, Salah I. ↑,
74', Bacanin A. ↓, Koindredi K. ↑,
79', Malen D. ↓, McGinn J. ↑,
80', Otele P. 🟨,
84', Konsa E. 🟨,
85', Leroy L. ↓, Broschinski M. ↑,
85', Otele P. ↓, Soticek M. ↑,
87', McGinn J. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Basel have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aston Villa is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Basel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Basel has had a series of away games.

In this match, Aston Villa is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Basel: Kaio Eduardo (Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Knee Injury) Mings T. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Guessand E. (Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Basel
Swiss Super League
07.12.25	Winterthur - Basel	1:2 ✺
Swiss Cup
04.12.25	Grand-Saconnex - Basel	1:3 ✺
Swiss Super League
30.11.25	Basel - St. Gallen	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Genk - Basel	2:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
23.11.25	Grasshoppers - Basel	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WWTLT
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
06.12.25	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
03.12.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	3:4 ✺
30.11.25	Aston Villa - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Aston Villa - Young Boys	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
23.11.25	Leeds United - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WWWWW

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