Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Leeds United		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.25
	3.25	3.4	2.28
	3.08	3.3	2.48
	3.10	3.32	2.34	Watch
	3.5	3.39	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (3.1)	3.34 ↑ (3.32)	2.31 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
29.8%

Draw
28.7%

Aston Villa
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

28.7%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

28.6%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.3%	21.9%	57.8%

Leeds United - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 13 - 21.7%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 35 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 45.8% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Aston Villa (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Leeds (2.29) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 8 - 88.9%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Aston Villa (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Aston Villa (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Perri (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 3. Gudmundsson G. 8. Longstaff S. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 18. Stach A. 11. Aaronson B. 14. Nmecha L. 19. Okafor N.	23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 7. McGinn J. (C) 44. Kamara B. 8. Tielemans Y. 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
15. Bijol J. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 26. Darlow K. (G) 29. Gnonto W. 44. Gruev I. 7. James D. 24. Justin J. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.	6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 29. Guessand E. 53. Hemmings G. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 17. Malen D. 19. Sancho J.
Coaches
Farke D.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Nmecha L. ⚽,
23', Stach A. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
41', Bogle J. 🟨,
45+3', Tanaka A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Digne L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
47', Buendia E. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Rogers M. ⚽, Malen D. (A),
53', McGinn J. 🟨,
63', Ampadu E. 🟨,
68', Watkins O. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
69', McGinn J. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
71', Tanaka A. ↓, Calvert-Lewin D. ↑,
71', Nmecha L. ↓, James D. ↑,
74', Struijk P. 🟨,
75', 1 - 2, Rogers M. ⚽,
80', Okafor N. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
80', Aaronson B. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,
84', Tielemans Y. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
89', Gnonto W. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 0.

Leeds is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aston Villa has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Garcia A. (Injury) Mings T. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Bogarde L. (Knock)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
09.11.25	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	3:0 ✺
24.10.25	Leeds United - West Ham United	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Burnley - Leeds United	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Leeds United - Tottenham Hotspur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
09.11.25	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Aston Villa - Maccabi Tel Aviv	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
01.11.25	Liverpool - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
13.01.23	Aston Villa - Leeds United	2:1
02.10.22	Leeds United - Aston Villa	0:0
Club Friendly
17.07.22	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:0
English Premier League
10.03.22	Leeds United - Aston Villa	0:3
09.02.22	Aston Villa - Leeds United	3:3
27.02.21	Leeds United - Aston Villa	0:1
23.10.20	Aston Villa - Leeds United	0:3

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