What is the expert prediction for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, January 25, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 7, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 2
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Japan	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Canal+ Sport 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	HBO Max
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 3
Nigeria	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 2
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 4
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Digiturk
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Newcastle United		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	3.25
	1.93	3.75	3.6
	2.15	3.65	3.25
	2.19	3.68	3.34
	2.22	3.63	3.29	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.3
	2.22	3.66	3.44	Watch
	2.22	3.5	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.05)	3.6 ↓ (3.8)	3.33 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
44.6%

Draw
26.6%

Aston Villa
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

25.3%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

24.7%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	28.2%	17.9%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 21 - 53.8%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 7 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 28.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 38.2% – 69.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 4 - 50%). Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (1.79) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Newcastle (1.32) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 70%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Aston Villa (2.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - Newcastle (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 9 - 50%). Aston Villa (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. (C) 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 3. Hall L. 67. Miley L. 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 11. Barnes H. 9. Wissa Y. 10. Gordon A.	23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. (C) 14. Torres P. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 19. Sancho J. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
33. Burn D. 20. Elanga A. 37. Murphy A. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 61. Shahar L. 28. Willock J. 27. Woltemade N.	31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 12. Digne L. 9. Elliott H. 29. Guessand E. 53. Hemmings G. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T.
Coaches
Howe E.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Buendia E. ⚽, Rogers M. (A),
27', Joelinton 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Joelinton ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
59', Sancho J. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
62', Wissa Y. ↓, Woltemade N. ↑,
63', Gordon A. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
74', Torres P. ↓, Mings T. ↑,
74', Buendia E. ↓, Digne L. ↑,
74', Tielemans Y. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
79', Digne L. 🟨,
84', Tonali S. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Watkins O. ⚽, Digne L. (A),
89', Onana A. ↓, Lindelof V. ↑,
90+2', Maatsen I. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Aston Villa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.

Newcastle will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Newcastle: Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Murphy J. (Hamstring Injury) Schar F. (Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Injury) Barkley R. (Knee Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) McGinn J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Ankle Injury) Burn D. (Chest Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Martinez E. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:22. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 22:7. (average 2.2:0.7).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aston Villa	34	17	7	10	47:42	5	58
15	Newcastle	34	12	6	16	46:50	-4	42

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 46.83%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Newcastle United - PSV Eindhoven	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
18.01.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
13.01.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	4:3 penalties ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Newcastle United - Leeds United	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLWW
- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
18.01.26	Aston Villa - Everton	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
16.08.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	0:0
19.04.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	4:1
26.12.24	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	3:0
30.01.24	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3
12.08.23	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	5:1
Club Friendly
23.07.23	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	3:3
English Premier League
15.04.23	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	3:0

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