Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Basingstoke Town		Malvern Town

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.80	3.10
	1.85	3.60	3.25
	1.89	3.92	3.25
	1.94	3.97	3.3	Watch
	1.87	3.85	3.20
	1.84	3.68	3.40
	1.89	3.75	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.79)	3.8 ↑ (3.68)	3.26 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Basingstoke Town
48.3%

Draw
23.9%

Malvern Town
27.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.4%

24.5%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

21.2%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Basingstoke Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Malvern Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Basingstoke Town than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Malvern Town than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Basingstoke Town - Malvern Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Sylla C. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
53', 2 - 0, Armsworth S. ⚽,
74', 2 - 1, Clark H. ⚽,
83', 3 - 1, Okine-Peters J. ⚽,
90+5', 4 - 1, Papkonstantinou C. ⚽,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 17th and 22nd in the Relegation).

Basingstoke has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Malvern is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Basingstoke holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Basingstoke	14	4	3	7	21:27	-6	15
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19:34	-15	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Basingstoke Town
English Southern League South Division
29.09.26	Uxbridge - Basingstoke Town	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Basingstoke Town - Gosport Borough	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Gloucester City - Basingstoke Town	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Basingstoke Town - Bracknell Town	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Taunton Town - Basingstoke Town	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTTWL
- Malvern Town
English Southern League South Division
29.09.26	Bath City - Malvern Town	2:1 ✺
22.09.26	Malvern Town - Gloucester City	5:2 ✺
12.09.26	Chertsey Town - Malvern Town	5:0 ✺
English FA Cup
07.09.26	Redditch United - Malvern Town	4:0 ✺
English Southern League South Division
31.08.26	Malvern Town - Chippenham Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLLL

Basingstoke Town - Malvern Town