Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 7

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	Bastia		Cannes

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.20	2.25
	2.9	3.15	2.25
	3.18	3.12	2.45
	2.98	3.22	2.24	Watch
	3.05	3	2.4
	2.97	2.96	2.32
	2.9	3.1	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.34)	3.11 ↓ (3.2)	2.32 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Bastia
30.9%

Draw
29.5%

Cannes
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

28.6%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

29.4%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bastia's form might have worsened.

Cannes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cannes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bastia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cannes than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cannes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	75%	12.5%

Bastia - Cannes Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Cannes will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Percin T. (G) 13. Melieres C. 35. Douce N. 20. Akueson G. 4. Roncaglia A. (C) 22. Monnier I. 12. Belal L. 17. Eickmayer J. 23. Garnier E. 9. Tomi F. 7. Rodrigues C.	1. Beunardeau Q. (G) 14. Corchia S. 17. Gueho L. 24. Morante L. 27. Abderrahmane H. 6. Goncalves C. (C) 25. N'Diaye A. 22. Sidibe O. 18. Majid A. 7. Noc M. 9. Morgan G.
Substitutes
33. Alebate N. 19. Beliandjou R. 16. Contena S. (G) 34. Djedje D. 3. Makalou H. 28. Petrignani M. 2. Zilliox N.	23. Gerbeaud R. 28. Hadjem Y. 11. Kerouedan A. 15. Ndoye C. 26. Oggad B. 19. Smith J. 30. Vanni F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Tomi F. ↓, Makalou H. ↑,
16', 0 - 1, Goncalves C. ⚽,
24', Abderrahmane H. 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Rodrigues C. ⚽, Makalou H. (A),
30', Monnier I. 🟨,
42', Garnier E. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Akueson G. 🟨,
49', Majid A. 🟨,
59', Sidibe O. ↓, Kerouedan A. ↑,
59', Majid A. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,
66', Morgan G. ↓, Gerbeaud R. ↑,
76', Melieres C. ↓, Zilliox N. ↑,
84', N'Diaye A. ↓, Ndoye C. ↑,
87', Rodrigues C. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
87', Monnier I. ↓, Djedje D. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 2 (Promotion: )).

Recent performances by Bastia have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cannes is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of French Ligue 3 for now

Bastia: 8.61% Cannes: 6.05%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Cannes	9	3	6	0	11:4	7	15
12	Bastia	9	3	2	4	7:11	-4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Bastia - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.14%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 3
12.09.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Bastia	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Bastia - Amiens	0:3 ✺
27.08.26	Caen - Bastia	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	Bastia - Versailles	2:3 ✺
14.08.26	Aubagne - Bastia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWLW
- AS Cannes
French Ligue 3
10.09.26	Cannes - Amiens	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Versailles - Cannes	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Cannes - Le Puy	2:0 ✺
20.08.26	La Roche VF - Cannes	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Cannes - Fleury 91	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWWTT

Upcoming Matches