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Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 6
  • Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: BayArena (Leverkusen) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)
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    Bayer Leverkusen Freiburg
    Bayer Leverkusen Freiburg
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.62 ↓
    (1.68)    		 4.49 ↑
    (4.27)    		 4.99 ↑
    (4.49)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Bayer Leverkusen
    59.4%    		Draw
    21.4%    		Freiburg
    19.3%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    56.6% 22.3% 21.2%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    59.7% 20.7% 19.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
  • Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    82.1% 17.9% 0%

    Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 3 - over (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (1.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Freiburg (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • New Consensus by Tipsters:
    • BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 100%) โญ Best Value.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (1.44) (votes: 90%) โญ Best Value.
  • Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (23 of 28 users predict this - 82.14%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 67.95% โ€“ 96.33%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) ๐Ÿฅ‰ Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Freiburg (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. NetherlandsFlekken M. (G)
      4. EnglandQuansah J.
    12. BurkinaTapsoba E. (C)
      2. ArgentinaMedina F.
      3. SpainGutierrez M.
    24. SpainGarcia A.
      6. ArgentinaFernandez E.
    19. FranceDiaby M.
    30. AlgeriaMaza I.
      9. PortugalMoreira A.
    14. CzechSchick P.
    		  1. GermanyBackhaus M. (G)
    29. GermanyTreu P.
    28. GermanyGinter M.
      3. AustriaLienhart P.
    33. DRMakengo J.
      8. GermanyEggestein M. (C)
    16. GermanyEngelhardt Y.
    19. GermanyBeste J.
    42. JapanGoto K.
      7. GermanyScherhant D.
    31. CroatiaMatanovic I.
    Substitutes
      8. GermanyAndrich R.
      5. FranceBade L.
    28. GermanyBlaswich J. (G)
    22. NigeriaBoniface V.
      7. GermanyHofmann J.
    17. SpainLucas
    15. GermanyOermann T.
    23. NigeriaTella N.
    10. USATillman M.
    		32. ItalyGrifo V.
    30. GermanyGunter C.
      9. GermanyHoler L.
    22. BurkinaIrie C.
    17. GermanyKubler L.
    21. GermanyMuller F. (G)
      6. GermanyOsterhage P.
    37. GermanyRosenfelder M.
    20. JapanYamamoto R.
    Coaches
         SpainMartinez C.
    		     GermanySchuster J.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 1)
    • 14', 0 - 1, Scherhant D. ⚽, Treu P. (A),
    • 19', 1 - 1, Maza I. ⚽, Schick P. (A),
    • 39', Treu P. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
    • 59', Moreira A. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
    • 64', Treu P. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
    • 65', Goto K. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
    • 73', Diaby M. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
    • 76', 2 - 1, Schick P. ⚽, Maza I. (A),
    • 77', Engelhardt Y. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
    • 77', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
    • 84', Maza I. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
    • 89', Scherhant D. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,

    Preview

  • A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 3rd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3.
  • Both teams have recently enjoyed an outstanding winning streak.
  • Freiburg may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
  • Recently, Freiburg has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
  • Bookmakers give the edge to Bayer for this game.
  • Confirmed absences for Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (Muscle Injury) Doue G. (Calf Injury) Eichhorn K. (Illness) Kofane C. (Muscle Injury) Terrier M. (Muscle Injury).
  • Confirmed absences for Freiburg: Suzuki Y. (Red Card).
  • Doubtful / questionable for Bayer: Culbreath M. (Foot Injury).
  • Doubtful / questionable for Freiburg: Yilmaz B. (Lacking Match Fitness).
  • Our forecast points to a victory for Bayer in today's match, at odds of 1.69.
  • In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Bayer has recorded 9 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 37:23 (averaging 1.9:1.2 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Bayer against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 21:9 goals (averaging 2.1:0.9 per game).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    3Freiburg741216:9713
    4Bayer Leverkusen741216:12413

    Outrights of German Bundesliga for now
    Bayer Leverkusen: 3.34% Freiburg: 0.85%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Bayer Leverkusen - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.57%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Bayer Leverkusen
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Lech Poznaล„ - Bayer Leverkusen 0:4 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    10.10.26 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 3:4 ✺
    20.09.26 Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig 2:0 ✺
    UEFA Europa League
    16.09.26 Bayer Leverkusen - Celje 2:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    12.09.26 Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1
    WWWWT
    - SC Freiburg
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    15.10.26 Freiburg - Jablonec 3:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    11.10.26 Freiburg - Schalke 04 2:1 ✺
    Club Friendly
    03.10.26 Freiburg - Luzern 4:2
    German Bundesliga
    19.09.26 Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg 2:2 ✺
    12.09.26 Freiburg - Borussia Mรถnchengladbach 5:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8
    WWWTW
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    07.03.26 Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen 3:3
    26.10.25 Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg 2:0
    04.05.25 Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2
    21.12.24 Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg 5:1
    17.03.24 Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen 2:3
    29.10.23 Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg 2:1
    26.02.23 Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen 1:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Bayer Leverkusen
    UEFA Europa League
    05.11.26 Bayer Leverkusen - Olympique Marseille ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart ✺
    - SC Freiburg
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    05.11.26 Trabzonspor - Freiburg ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Augsburg - Freiburg ✺

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