Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2	3.7	3.5	Watch
	2.02	3.55	3.55	Watch
	1.86	3.95	4.2
	1.00	16.37	100.00	Watch
				Watch
	1.99	3.79	3.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.68)	6.27 ↑ (4.03)	23 ↑ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
73.5%

Draw
20.8%

Freiburg
5.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

23.7%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

23.1%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bayer Leverkusen's performance.

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Freiburg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bayer Leverkusen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Freiburg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.8%	9.6%	9.6%

Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1 - Freiburg (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - draw (1.87) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -0.75 - Bayer (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (42 of 52 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.06% – 91.48%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Freiburg (votes: 3 - 18.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. (C) 7. Hofmann J. 19. Poku E. 35. Kofane C. M.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. (C) 44. Manzambi J. 29. Treu P. 9. Holer L. 7. Scherhant D. 20. Adamu J.
Substitutes
8. Andrich R. 44. Belocian J. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 9. Echeverri C. 30. Maza I. 27. Mensah J. 14. Schick P. 11. Terrier M.	19. Beste J. 32. Grifo V. 30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 5. Jung A. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 37. Rosenfelder M. 14. Suzuki Y.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Lienhart P. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Poku E. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
39', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Adamu J. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Tapsoba E. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
67', Fernandez E. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,
67', Hofmann J. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
67', Manzambi J. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
67', Kubler L. ↓, Rosenfelder M. ↑,
74', Lienhart P. 🟨,
77', Kofane C. M. ↓, Schick P. ↑,
77', Quansah J. ↓, Belocian J. ↑,
77', Scherhant D. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
85', Poku E. ↓, Ben Seghir E. ↑,
85', Holer L. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3.

Bayer is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Freiburg has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bayer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayer is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Lucas (Muscle Injury) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Tape A. (Hamstring Injury) Tella N. (Knee Injury) Tillman M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Bayer: Quansah J. (Muscle Injury) Schick P. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Muller F. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:10. (average 1.9:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Bayer Leverkusen - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.75%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Paris Saint-Germain	2:7 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
04.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWWTW
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Freiburg - Utrecht	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.10.25	Freiburg - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Bologna - Freiburg	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.09.25	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
04.05.25	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
21.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	5:1
17.03.24	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
29.10.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:1
26.02.23	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
03.09.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:3
14.05.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:1

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