Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hoffenheim		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.75	2.8	Watch
	2.38	3.7	2.78	Watch
	2.31	3.85	2.82	Watch
	2.3	3.6	2.7
	2.43	3.86	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.75	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.33)	3.75 ↓ (3.82)	2.79 (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hoffenheim
40.4%

Draw
25.4%

Bayer Leverkusen
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

24.9%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

27%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

The chances for Bayer Leverkusen have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.6%	18.2%	43.2%

Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 17 - 38.6%). Bayer will win (votes: 19 - 43.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 28.6% – 57.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 4 - 40%). Bayer (votes: 6 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bayer (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Bayer (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Bayer (votes: 9 - 69.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 27. Kramaric A. 11. Asllani F. 22. Prass A. 19. Lemperle T.	1. Flekken M. (G) 8. Andrich R. (C) 5. Bade L. 4. Quansah J. 13. Arthur 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 10. Tillman M. 19. Poku E. 14. Schick P.
Substitutes
25. Akpoguma K. 9. Bebou I. 10. Damar M. 15. Gendrey V. 5. Kabak O. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 6. Promel G. 29. Toure B.	44. Belocian J. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. 21. Lucas 30. Maza I. 18. Sarco A. 23. Tella N. 11. Terrier M.
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Burger W. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Arthur ↓, Maza I. ↑,
46', Fernandez E. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
48', Burger W. 🟨,
60', Flekken M. ↓, Blaswich J. ↑,
62', Hranac R. 🟨,
69', Asllani F. ↓, Promel G. ↑,
74', Poku E. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
79', Prass A. ↓, Gendrey V. ↑,
79', Kramaric A. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
81', Tella N. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
84', Quansah J. 🟨,
90+1', Lemperle T. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1.

Hoffenheim is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Bayer has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bayer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (International duty) Tapsoba E. (Rest)

There are questionable in Bayer: Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Tape A. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 34:36. (average 1.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hoffenheim won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 1.5:2.1).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.21% Hoffenheim: 0.45%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Mönchengladbach	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.01.26	Hoffenheim - Heerenveen	Canceled ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Stuttgart - Hoffenheim	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Hoffenheim	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 W?TWL
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	1:4 ✺
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
13.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	1:2
02.02.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	3:1
14.09.24	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:4
30.03.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	2:1
04.11.23	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
11.02.23	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3
20.08.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	0:3

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