Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 12

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Stuttgart

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.7	2.3	Watch
	3.05	3.7	2.18	Watch
	3.26	3.8	2.23
	3.02	3.80	2.18	Watch
				Watch
	3.25	3.84	2.24	Watch
	3.1	3.66	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (3.05)	3.75 ↓ (3.77)	2.22 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
31.1%

Draw
25.6%

Stuttgart
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

25.2%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

25.4%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Stuttgart has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Stuttgart aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.4%	12.5%	78.1%

Hamburger SV - Stuttgart Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Stuttgart will win (25 of 32 users predict this - 78.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 63.81% – 92.45%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuttgart will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 14. Philippe R. 9. Glatzel R. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A.	33. Nubel A. (G) 3. Hendriks R. 24. Chabot J. (C) 2. Al Dakhil A. 15. Stenzel P. 30. Andres C. 28. Nartey N. 4. Vagnoman J. 10. Fuhrich C. 11. El Khannouss B. 27. Bouanani B.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 7. Dompe J. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 26. Peretz D. (G) 13. Ramos G. 29. Sahiti E. 22. Soumahoro A. 20. Vieira F.	22. Assignon L. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 29. Jeltsch F. 45. Jovanovic L. 16. Karazor A. 18. Leweling J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 6. Stiller A. 26. Undav D.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Hoeness S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Glatzel R. ⚽, Rossing-Lelesiit A. (A),
23', Stenzel P. 🟨,
34', Glatzel R. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
40', Fuhrich C. ↓, Undav D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Stenzel P. ↓, Leweling J. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Undav D. ⚽,
57', Nartey N. ↓, Stiller A. ↑,
65', Rossing-Lelesiit A. 🟨,
67', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
67', Mikelbrencis W. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
68', Philippe R. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
74', Andres C. 🟨,
81', Rossing-Lelesiit A. 🟨,
81', Undav D. 🟨,
87', Vagnoman J. 🟨,
88', Hendriks R. ↓, Mittelstadt M. ↑,
88', Bouanani B. ↓, Jovanovic L. ↑,
89', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Vieira F. ⚽, Balde F. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.

Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Stuttgart is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Stuttgart may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Stuttgart might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Hamburg: Elfadli D. (Groin Injury) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Poulsen Y. (Inactive)

There will not play in Stuttgart: Demirovic E. (Foot Injury) Diehl J. (Ankle Injury) Keitel Y. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 25:34. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.9:2.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Stuttgart - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.59%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Köln - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Hamburger SV - Wolfsburg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTLWL
- VfB Stuttgart
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Stuttgart	0:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	3:3 ✺
09.11.25	Stuttgart - Augsburg	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Stuttgart - Feyenoord	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	RB Leipzig - Stuttgart	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
05.06.23	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	1:3
01.06.23	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:0
Club Friendly
26.08.20	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:2
German 2 Bundesliga
28.05.20	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	3:2
German DFB Pokal
29.10.19	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	1:2 ET
German 2 Bundesliga
26.10.19	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	6:2
German Bundesliga
31.03.18	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	1:1

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