Match Info

AFC Champions League 2 - Round 6

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Workers' Stadium (Beijing)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
India	FanCode, FanCode
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football, TDM TV
Pakistan	Tapmad
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Beijing Guoan		Macarthur FC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.38	3.45	2.62
	2.35	3.6	2.62
	2.47	3.48	2.65	Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.6
	2.45	3.44	2.7	Watch
	2.25	3.6	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.78)	3.47 ↓ (4.06)	2.65 ↓ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Beijing Guoan
38.8%

Draw
26.5%

Macarthur FC
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

22.9%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

22.1%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Beijing Guoan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Beijing Guoan's form might have worsened.

Macarthur FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Macarthur FC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Beijing Guoan than the current prediction. (+15.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Beijing Guoan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Macarthur FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	16.7%	25%

Beijing Guoan - Macarthur FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Beijing Guoan will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Macarthur will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Beijing Guoan: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Beijing Guoan (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Macarthur (1.77) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Beijing Guoan (votes: 2 - 40%). Macarthur (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Zhang Jianzhi (G) 18. Fang Hao 5. Ngadeu M. 26. Bai Yang 19. Muhmet N. 6. Chi Zhongguo 7. Serginho 21. Zhang Yuan 10. Zhang Xizhe (C) 35. Jiang Wenhao 9. Zhang Yuning	1. Robinson A. (G) 32. McKay W. 6. Uskok T. 14. Popovic K. 18. Scott W. 17. Randazzo O. 22. Rose L. 10. Caceres A. (C) 8. Vickery L. 33. Ji Dong-Won 11. Oliveira B.
Substitutes
33. Abbas Nureli (G) 29. Abreu F. 16. Feng Boxuan 4. Li Lei 11. Lin Liangming 28. Li Ruiyue 63. Wei J. 2. Wu Shaocong	24. Bosnjak D. 27. Damevski J. 23. Deli F. 29. Helweh Z. 30. Lakkis J. (G) 28. Sawyer H. 25. Talbot C.
Coaches
Amarelle R.	Sterjovski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Ngadeu M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Zhang Yuning ↓, Feng Boxuan ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Popovic K. ⚽, Caceres A. (A),
57', Popovic K. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Serginho ⚽, Feng Boxuan (A),
62', Caceres A. ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
62', Oliveira B. ↓, Helweh Z. ↑,
68', Ngadeu M. ↓, Wu Shaocong ↑,
68', Muhmet N. ↓, Abreu F. ↑,
68', Zhang Xizhe ↓, Lin Liangming ↑,
70', Randazzo O. ↓, Bosnjak D. ↑,
70', Ji Dong-Won ↓, Deli F. ↑,
70', Bai Yang 🟨,
71', 1 - 2, Sawyer H. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Robinson A. 🟨,
82', Vickery L. ↓, Talbot C. ↑,
83', Chi Zhongguo ↓, Li Ruiyue ↑,
84', Fang Hao 🟨,
84', Scott W. 🟨,
90+8', Sawyer H. 🟨,
90+9', Bai Yang 🟨,
90+9', Zhang Jianzhi 🟨,

Preview

Macarthur is Qualified for AFC Champions League 2 (Play Offs )

Beijing Guoan is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Macarthur's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Beijing Guoan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Beijing Guoan might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Beijing Guoan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Beijing Guoan
Chinese FA Cup
06.12.25	Beijing Guoan - Henan Songshan Longmen	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
27.11.25	Cong An Ha Noi - Beijing Guoan	2:1 ✺
Chinese Super League
22.11.25	Beijing Guoan - Meizhou Hakka	5:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
06.11.25	Beijing Guoan - Wofoo Tai Po	3:0 ✺
Chinese Super League
01.11.25	Changchun Yatai - Beijing Guoan	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWW
- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
05.12.25	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Macarthur FC - Perth Glory	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
27.11.25	Macarthur FC - Wofoo Tai Po	2:1 ✺
Australian A-League
21.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Macarthur FC	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Sydney - Macarthur FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League 2
02.10.25	Macarthur FC - Beijing Guoan	3:0

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