Match Info

Super League - Round 29

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Development Area Stadium (Changchun)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, QQ Sports


	Changchun Yatai		Beijing Guoan

	1	X	2
	2.5	4	2.32	Watch
	2.52	3.9	2.35	Watch
	4.34	4.51	1.58	Watch
	2.61	4.02	2.41	Watch
	2.55	3.9	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↓ (4.34)	4.07 ↓ (4.51)	2.21 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Changchun Yatai
33%

Draw
23.6%

Beijing Guoan
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

20.4%

58.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

19.4%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Changchun Yatai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Changchun Yatai's performance.

Beijing Guoan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Beijing Guoan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Changchun Yatai than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Changchun Yatai that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Beijing Guoan than the current prediction. (+17.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Beijing Guoan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Changchun Yatai - Beijing Guoan Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Changchun Yatai will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Beijing Guoan will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Changchun Yatai (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Changchun Yatai (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Changchun Yatai (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Wang Zhifeng (G) 2. Abdugheni Abduhamit 31. Sunzu S. 17. He Yiran 5. Li Shenyuan 35. Peng Xinli 25. Cyprien W. 15. Xu Haofeng 40. Asqer A. 10. Omoijuanfo O. (C) 27. Salazar J.	34. Hou Sen (G) 27. Wang Gang 5. Ngadeu M. 35. Jiang Wenhao 3. He Yupeng 23. Dawhan 37. Cao Yongjing 7. Serginho 6. Chi Zhongguo 17. Yang Liyu 29. Abreu F. (C)
Substitutes
1. An Z. (G) 36. Liu Guobao 21. Piao Taoyu 29. Tan Long 11. Tian Yuda 3. Wang Yaopeng 20. Xuan Z. 19. Xu Yue 24. Yan Zhiyu 6. Zhang Huachen 37. Zhao Yingjie 7. Zhou Junchen	33. Abbas Nureli (G) 26. Bai Yang 18. Fang Hao 30. Fan Shuangjie 16. Feng Boxuan 8. Guga 4. Li Lei 20. Wang Ziming 39. Zhang Jianzhi (G) 10. Zhang Xizhe 21. Zhang Yuan 9. Zhang Yuning
Coaches
Soares R.	Amarelle R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', He Yupeng 🟨,
12', Asqer A. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Serginho ⚽, Yang Liyu (A),
27', Salazar J. 🟨,
40', Peng Xinli 🟨,
45+11', Abreu F. (Pen),
45+13', 0 - 2, Abreu F. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Asqer A. ↓, Tan Long ↑,
46', Chi Zhongguo ↓, Guga ↑,
46', Sunzu S. ↓, Zhang Huachen ↑,
46', Jiang Wenhao ↓, Bai Yang ↑,
63', He Yupeng ↓, Li Lei ↑,
63', Serginho ↓, Zhang Yuning ↑,
73', Xu Haofeng ↓, Xuan Z. ↑,
73', Cyprien W. ↓, Liu Guobao ↑,
77', 0 - 3, Zhang Yuning ⚽, Abreu F. (A),
78', Omoijuanfo O. ↓, Zhou Junchen ↑,
79', Yang Liyu ↓, Zhang Xizhe ↑,
82', 0 - 4, Abreu F. ⚽,
83', Ngadeu M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Changchun Yatai won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Changchun Yatai may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Changchun Yatai: Abdugheni Abduhamit (Yellow Cards) Wang Yu (Red Card) Wu Yake (Injury)

There will not play in Beijing Guoan: Han Jiaqi (Knee Injury) Muhmet N. (Injury) Spajic U. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Changchun Yatai: Omoijuanfo O. (Injury) Salazar J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Changchun Yatai won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 24:42. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Changchun Yatai won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Changchun Yatai
Chinese Super League
25.10.25	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Changchun Yatai	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Changchun Yatai	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Changchun Yatai - Qingdao Hainiu	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Changchun Yatai - Zhejiang Professional	3:3 ✺
12.09.25	Chengdu Rongcheng - Changchun Yatai	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLTTL
- Beijing Guoan
Chinese Super League
26.10.25	Beijing Guoan - Qingdao Hainiu	2:4 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
23.10.25	Wofoo Tai Po - Beijing Guoan	3:3 ✺
Chinese Super League
18.10.25	Shenzhen Peng City - Beijing Guoan	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
02.10.25	Macarthur FC - Beijing Guoan	3:0 ✺
Chinese Super League
26.09.25	Beijing Guoan - Dalian Young Boy	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
14.06.25	Beijing Guoan - Changchun Yatai	2:1
28.09.24	Beijing Guoan - Changchun Yatai	8:1
17.05.24	Changchun Yatai - Beijing Guoan	3:2
22.09.23	Changchun Yatai - Beijing Guoan	1:1
02.06.23	Beijing Guoan - Changchun Yatai	4:3
15.12.22	Beijing Guoan - Changchun Yatai	3:0
24.10.22	Changchun Yatai - Beijing Guoan	0:1

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