Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Caldas		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.12
	3.4	3.26	2.13	Watch
	3.4	2.9	2.1
	3.48	3.17	2.14	Watch
	3.33	3	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (3.18)	3.07 ↑ (2.95)	2.12 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
27.1%

Draw
29.8%

Belenenses
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

30.8%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

29.2%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Caldas - Belenenses Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Caldas will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Belenenses will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Belenenses: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Belenenses (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soares W. (G) 30. Monteiro E. 66. Carreira R. 3. Pires Gomes J. R. 8. Clemente D. 10. Januario 4. Pipo 6. Palmerio M. 25. Farinha L. 17. Goncas 33. Tarzan	99. Oliveira G. (G) 2. Machado J. 39. Pinto A. 4. Nuno Tomas (C) 17. Horta Leitao D. 20. Paulo D. 5. Teixeira J. 31. David Rebelo 21. Morgado T. 27. Barros E. 7. Eduardo W.
Substitutes
7. Alexandre R. 12. Almeida D. (G) 23. Catarino T. 9. Chaves G. 87. Ewandro Santos 79. Gata J. 27. Magalhaes M. 14. Maneta D. 2. Yordy Marcelo	22. Bandarra M. 23. Bruninho 66. Cesinha 13. Cuca 11. Duda 18. Isabelinha 90. Moreira J. 19. Valente A. 9. Ze Love

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', Barros E. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Eduardo W. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Goncas ⚽, Tarzan (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 1 - 2, Eduardo W. ⚽,
61', Eduardo W. 🟨,
65', Farinha L. ↓, Chaves G. ↑,
66', Januario 🟨,
67', David Rebelo ↓, Ze Love ↑,
67', Eduardo W. ↓, Duda ↑,
74', Goncas ↓, Catarino T. ↑,
74', Januario ↓, Alexandre R. ↑,
74', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
87', Carreira R. ↓, Magalhaes M. ↑,
89', Nuno Tomas ↓, Cesinha ↑,
89', Paulo D. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
90+1', Pipo 🟨,

Preview

Caldas has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Belenenses is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Belenenses will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Belenenses will win today's game, with odds of 2.17.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Caldas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
03.01.26	Mafra - Caldas	4:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.12.25	Caldas - Braga	0:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
19.12.25	Caldas - União de Santarém	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Caldas - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
03.01.26	Belenenses - Amora	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Covilhã - Belenenses	0:4 ✺
14.12.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitano GC - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
04.10.25	Belenenses - Caldas	0:2
03.11.24	Caldas - Belenenses	1:1
02.08.24	Belenenses - Caldas	2:1
19.02.23	Caldas - Belenenses	0:1
06.11.22	Belenenses - Caldas	1:1

Caldas - Belenenses: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide