Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 25

Date: 11 March 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3, Sport TV+


	Belenenses		Leixões

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.9	2.3
	2.87	3	2.25	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.35	Watch
	3.34	3.15	2.41
	3.34	3.15	2.41
	2.9	3.1	2.25
	3.15	3.18	2.31
	3.05	3	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.5)	3.07 ↑ (3)	2.32 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
29.8%

Draw
30.2%

Leixões
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

29.9%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

31.7%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Belenenses's form might have worsened.

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leixões's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Belenenses, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leixões, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	22.2%	44.4%

Belenenses - Leixões Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Leixões will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leixões: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Grilo D. (G) 48. Manso T. 33. Correia R. (C) 37. Akas C. 5. Goncalves T. 16. Chapi 28. Cruz H. 77. Keita M. 23. Fernandes X. 21. Pina R. 99. Silva M.	51. Stefanovic I. (C) 77. Paulinho 4. Leo Bolgado 43. Danrlei 15. Simaozinho 27. Fabinho 6. Paulinho 13. Zagbayou H. 84. Adriano Amorim 33. Valente R. 10. Paulite
Substitutes
25. Carvalho P. 12. Dini F. 3. Fabao 8. Gomes Tavares D. 9. Matos R. 14. Oliveira G. (G) 11. Sambu M. 10. Tavares M. 87. Zequinha	44. Avto 45. Daniels D. 8. Freitas R. 5. Isaque Gavioli 9. Joao Marcos 31. Matos F. (G) 70. Oliveira J. 11. Ventura B. 18. Vito
Coaches
Barreto M.	Fangueiro C.

Preview

Belenenses is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Leixões is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Belenenses could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
05.03.24	Marítimo - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
25.02.24	Belenenses - Torreense	0:2 ✺
17.02.24	Leiria - Belenenses	4:2 ✺
11.02.24	Belenenses - Tondela	0:0 ✺
02.02.24	Mafra - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 TLLTT
- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
03.03.24	Leixões - Tondela	1:1 ✺
28.02.24	Leixões - Nacional	1:1 ✺
24.02.24	Porto B - Leixões	0:2 ✺
16.02.24	Leixões - Paços de Ferreira	1:1 ✺
10.02.24	Benfica B - Leixões	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.10.23	Leixões - Belenenses	1:0

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