Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 22

Date: 17 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Referee: Rosa D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Leiria		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.6	5.75
	1.53	3.6	5.25
	1.62	4	5	Watch
	1.6	3.85	5.8
	1.6	4.1	5.87
	1.5	3.6	5.5
	1.6	3.76	6
	1.55	3.7	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.61)	3.78 ↓ (3.89)	5.62 ↑ (5.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
59.1%

Draw
24.5%

Belenenses
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

24.3%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

17.7%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-16.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leiria that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Belenenses could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Leiria - Belenenses Predictions

Users Predictions: Leiria will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kieszek P. (G) 24. Zie Ouattara 72. Oliveira V. 4. Bura 14. Empis P. 10. van der Gaag J. 42. D'Avilla D. 25. Amado D. (C) 17. Lucho Vega 90. Ayongo P. 35. Rochez B.	22. Grilo D. (G) 25. Carvalho P. 34. Ilori T. 37. Akas C. 5. Peres T. 16. Chapi 20. Mica 6. Chaby F. 19. Valente D. (C) 23. Fernandes X. 9. Matos R.
Substitutes
7. Antunes L. 23. Brenner 16. Cuca 9. Fernandes R. 3. Lystsov V. 47. Oliveira J. (G) 11. Silva J. 88. Silva M. 22. Valdir	18. Attard C. 3. Fabao 8. Gomes Tavares D. 77. Keita M. 2. Machado J. 14. Oliveira G. (G) 11. Sambu M. 99. Silva M. 10. Tavares M.
Coaches
Costa V.	Faisca V.

Preview

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Belenenses could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Leiria is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Leiria won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Leiria won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
11.02.24	AVS - Leiria	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
07.02.24	Leiria - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
03.02.24	Leiria - Porto B	1:1 ✺
29.01.24	Benfica B - Leiria	0:1 ✺
14.01.24	Leiria - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTWL
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
11.02.24	Belenenses - Tondela	0:0 ✺
02.02.24	Mafra - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
28.01.24	Porto B - Belenenses	3:0 ✺
20.01.24	Belenenses - AVS	1:3 ✺
13.01.24	Belenenses - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
17.09.23	Belenenses - Leiria	0:5
Portuguese Liga 3
20.05.23	Leiria - Belenenses	1:0
29.01.23	Belenenses - Leiria	1:2
09.10.22	Leiria - Belenenses	2:4

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