Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 13

Date: 10 December 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Belenenses		Oliveirense

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3.1
	2.15	3.3	2.85
	2.2	3.5	3	Watch
	2.25	3.67	3.16
	2.25	3.67	3.16
	2.1	3.4	2.8
	2.23	3.48	2.92
	2.18	3.35	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.55)	3.48 ↑ (3.43)	2.99 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
42.3%

Draw
26.6%

Oliveirense
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

27.7%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

27.9%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Belenenses's performance.

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Belenenses that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	37.5%	37.5%

Belenenses - Oliveirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Oliveirense will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oliveirense: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Oliveira G. (G) 25. Carvalho P. 13. Serra A. 37. Akas C. 48. Manso T. 19. Valente D. (C) 16. Chapi 21. Pina R. 11. Sambu M. 10. Tavares M. 9. Matos R.	12. Macedo N. (G) 72. Negrao G. 19. John K. 4. Iago Reis 88. Kazu 34. Ze Leite 27. Ibrahima 5. Filipe Alves (C) 22. Ze Pedro 21. Jaiminho 7. Paulo J.
Substitutes
18. Attard C. 7. Cle 3. Fabao 8. Gomes Tavares D. 22. Grilo D. (G) 77. Keita M. 17. Moninhas T. 5. Peres T. 99. Silva M.	99. Augusto A. (G) 9. Carter A. 25. Casimiro 10. Duarte D. 18. Gadelho V. 42. Guilherme 37. Lamine M. 11. Miura K. 56. Schurrle
Coaches
Faisca V.	Araujo D.

Preview

Belenenses is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Oliveirense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
01.12.23	Académico de Viseu - Belenenses	3:1 ✺
19.11.23	Belenenses - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
10.11.23	Feirense - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
04.11.23	Belenenses - Vilaverdense	0:2 ✺
28.10.23	Leixões - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLL
- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
02.12.23	Oliveirense - Porto B	1:3 ✺
25.11.23	Benfica B - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
11.11.23	Oliveirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
05.11.23	AVS - Oliveirense	0:1 ✺
29.10.23	Oliveirense - Leiria	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LTTWL

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