Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 22 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra (Cordoba)

Referee: Benitez C. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Fox Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Usa	beIN Connect, FuboTV, Tubi TV
World	Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Belgrano		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	3.1	Watch
	2.37	3.1	3
	2.4	3.1	3	Watch
	2.44	3.16	3.25
	2.41	3.16	3.14	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.9
	2.4	3.24	3.07	Watch
	2.4	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.85)	3.12 ↓ (3.3)	3.06 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: fubo Sports Network

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Current Win Probability

Belgrano
39.2%

Draw
30.1%

Athletico Paranaense
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

28.1%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

27.3%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Belgrano's performance.

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belgrano than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Belgrano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	46.2%	23.1%

Belgrano - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Belgrano will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chicco I. (G) 40. Moreno M. 37. Troilo M. 33. Delgado R. 4. Barinaga J. 24. Gonzalez F. 23. Quignon F. 16. Rolon E. 53. Velazquez J. 19. Chavarria P. 29. Jara F.	24. Leo Linck (G) 4. Kaique Rocha 44. Thiago Heleno (C) 37. Esquivel L. 26. Erick 5. Fernandinho 28. Cuello 10. Zapelli B. 88. Christian 14. Canobbio A. 9. Gonzalo Mastriani
Substitutes
45. Baldi A. 8. Compagnucci G. 25. Espinola J. (G) 35. Facello F. 22. Fernandez N. 34. Heredia G. 51. Hernandes R. 5. Longo S. 13. Meriano N. 6. Rebola A. 11. Reyna B. 7. Suarez M.	7. Di Yorio L. 23. Felipinho 6. Fernando 3. Gabriel 15. Gamarra M. 29. Godoy L. 57. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 45. Lucas Belezi 22. Madson 41. Mycael (G) 34. Nikao
Coaches
Real J.	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Rolon E. 🟨,
20', Erick 🟨,
21', Esquivel L. 🟥,
24', Zapelli B. ↓, Fernando ↑,
45+4', Varini M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Chavarria P. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
46', Rolon E. ↓, Reyna B. ↑,
49', Fernandinho 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Gonzalo Mastriani ⚽, Thiago Heleno (A),
60', Real J. 🟨,
64', Fernandinho ↓, Gabriel ↑,
64', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
64', Christian 🟨,
67', Velazquez J. ↓, Suarez M. ↑,
87', Cuello ↓, Julimar ↑,
87', Jara F. 🟨,
88', Delgado R. ↓, Heredia G. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Di Yorio L. ⚽, Christian (A),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Belgrano is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Belgrano won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belgrano de Cordoba
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.08.24	Huracán Buenos Aires - Belgrano	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Belgrano	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.08.24	Belgrano - Unión Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
04.08.24	Sarmiento de Junín - Belgrano	0:0 ✺
29.07.24	Belgrano - Godoy Cruz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTTW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
18.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Juventude	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Belgrano	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.08.24	Internacional RS - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
15.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Belgrano	2:1

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