Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 23

Date: 18 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Furacão Play, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Peru	L1 Play
Portugal	Canal 11
Ukraine	Sport 2
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Juventude

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.2	5.75	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.75
	1.55	4.2	5.5
	1.55	4.29	6.13
	1.58	4.19	5.65	Watch
	1.53	3.9	6
	1.56	4.3	5.65	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.67)	4.19 ↑ (3.68)	5.74 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
60.9%

Draw
22.6%

Juventude
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

25.4%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

23.7%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	5.9%	5.9%

Athletico Paranaense - Juventude Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Leo Linck (G) 29. Godoy L. 4. Kaique Rocha 15. Gamarra M. 6. Fernando 3. Gabriel 57. Joao Cruz 10. Zapelli B. 11. Nikao (C) 7. Di Yorio L. 20. Julimar	1. Gabriel (G) 70. Yan Souto 4. Danilo Boza 3. Ze Marcos 28. Alan Ruschel (C) 8. Thiaguinho 16. Jadson 10. Nene 11. Marcelinho 79. Carrillo R. 7. Erick Farias
Substitutes
14. Canobbio A. 88. Christian 28. Cuello 26. Erick 37. Esquivel L. 23. Felipinho 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 45. Lucas Belezi 22. Madson 41. Mycael (G) 42. Soares M. (G) 30. Ze Vitor	23. Abner 88. Davi Goes 13. Diego Goncalves 30. Dudu Vieira 17. Edson Carioca 12. Gabriel Inocencio 20. Jean Carlos 22. Joao Vitor 99. Lucas Wingert (G) 5. Luis Oyama 44. Mandaca 77. Mateus Claus (G)
Coaches
Varini M.	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', Jadson 🟨,
23', Gamarra M. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Nene ⚽, Erick Farias (A),
39', 1 - 1, Nikao ⚽, Joao Cruz (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Erick Farias ↓, Edson Carioca ↑,
57', Julimar ↓, Canobbio A. ↑,
57', Joao Cruz ↓, Christian ↑,
62', Thiaguinho ↓, Dudu Vieira ↑,
63', Nene ↓, Mandaca ↑,
66', Nikao ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
67', Di Yorio L. ↓, Cuello ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Yan Souto ⚽, Marcelinho (A),
70', Leo Linck ↓, Mycael ↑,
72', Jadson ↓, Luis Oyama ↑,
74', Gabriel 🟨,
81', Yan Souto ↓, Abner ↑,
82', Alan Ruschel 🟨,
86', Christian 🟨,
90', Zapelli B. 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 13).

Athletico PR is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Juventude is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Juventude could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Athletico PR is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Athletico PR won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Copa Sudamericana
15.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Belgrano	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.08.24	Internacional RS - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.24	Athletico Paranaense - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WTWLW
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
14.08.24	Internacional RS - Juventude	2:1 ✺
11.08.24	Juventude - Botafogo RJ	3:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Fluminense - Juventude	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.08.24	Corinthians - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.08.24	Juventude - Fluminense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Juventude - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
01.10.22	Athletico Paranaense - Juventude	2:0
08.06.22	Juventude - Athletico Paranaense	1:3
18.09.21	Athletico Paranaense - Juventude	2:1
06.06.21	Juventude - Athletico Paranaense	0:3

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