Match Info

ENGLAND: NPL PREMIER DIVISION - ROUND 36

Date: 18 March 2023, Saturday


	Belper Town		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.4	1.82
	3.45	3.45	1.8
	3.63	3.73	1.88
	3.5	3.4	1.85
	3.78	3.62	1.83
	3.5	3.6	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↓ (4.82)	3.53 ↓ (3.74)	1.84 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belper Town
25.3%

Draw
25.6%

Lancaster City
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

24.2%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

23.6%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belper Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Belper Town's performance.

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lancaster City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belper Town than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Belper Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lancaster City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Belper Town - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Belper has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lancaster is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Belper could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lancaster is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Belper won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belper Town
English NPL Premier Division
07.03.23	Ashton United - Belper Town	3:1 ✺
04.03.23	Stalybridge Celtic - Belper Town	2:1 ✺
25.02.23	Belper Town - South Shields	0:1 ✺
18.02.23	Gainsborough Trinity - Belper Town	2:2 ✺
11.02.23	Belper Town - Marine	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLLTL
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
11.03.23	Nantwich Town - Lancaster City	2:1 ✺
04.03.23	Lancaster City - Morpeth Town	2:1 ✺
28.02.23	Lancaster City - Marske United	2:0 ✺
25.02.23	Lancaster City - Whitby Town	2:0 ✺
21.02.23	Guiseley - Lancaster City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
01.10.22	Lancaster City - Belper Town	1:1

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