Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 38

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday


	Lancaster City		Morpeth Town

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.45	3.45
	1.91	3.66	3.49
	1.93	3.77	3.5	Watch
	1.85	3.3	3.5
	1.84	3.5	3.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.65)	3.54 ↓ (3.79)	3.52 ↓ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
48.4%

Draw
25.8%

Morpeth Town
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

24.5%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

23.8%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lancaster City's form might have worsened.

Morpeth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Morpeth Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lancaster City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morpeth Town than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Morpeth Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lancaster City - Morpeth Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Yawson S. ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, Yawson S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
73', 3 - 0, (Own goal),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Lancaster is seen as the favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:29. (average 1.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lancaster won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:6. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
28.03.26	Hebburn Town - Lancaster City	4:1 ✺
21.03.26	Lancaster City - Cleethorpes Town	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Whitby Town - Lancaster City	1:3 ✺
07.03.26	Lancaster City - Warrington Town	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Prescot Cables - Lancaster City	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTWLW
- Morpeth Town
English NPL Premier Division
28.03.26	Morpeth Town - Leek Town	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Bamber Bridge - Morpeth Town	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Morpeth Town - Hyde United	1:0 ✺
10.03.26	Cleethorpes Town - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Morpeth Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
19.08.25	Morpeth Town - Lancaster City	0:1
22.03.25	Lancaster City - Morpeth Town	0:0
16.11.24	Morpeth Town - Lancaster City	0:2
16.03.24	Morpeth Town - Lancaster City	2:0
24.10.23	Lancaster City - Morpeth Town	3:2
04.03.23	Lancaster City - Morpeth Town	2:1
English FA Trophy
08.10.22	Morpeth Town - Lancaster City	2:3

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