Match Info

Date: 15 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ciro Vigorito (Benevento)

Referee: Volpi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Benevento		Ternana

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.35	3.4	2.85
	2.4	3.4	2.8
	2.43	3.25	2.8
	2.55	3.39	2.94
	2.2	3.2	3.3
	2.41	3.44	2.82	Watch
	2.38	3.3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.07)	3.35 ↑ (3.2)	2.88 ↓ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benevento
39.3%

Draw
28.1%

Ternana
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

29.3%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

30.5%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Benevento's form might have worsened.

Ternana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ternana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Benevento, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ternana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45%	25%	30%

Benevento - Ternana Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Benevento will win (votes: 9 - 45%). Ternana will win (votes: 6 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benevento: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Benevento has the most likely position - 10 (7.19%), has project points - 53, has currently - 9, has a small chance of relegated (9%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (37%), has a small chance of promoted (13%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Ternana has the most likely position - 5 (7.89%), has project points - 58, has currently - 16, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (45%), has a chance of promoted (20%), has a small chance of win league (6%).

This event has quality 36, importance 33, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Benevento is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ternana is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Benevento won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Benevento won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
09.10.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Benevento	1:1 ✺
02.10.22	Benevento - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
16.09.22	Brescia - Benevento	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Benevento - Cagliari	0:2 ✺
03.09.22	Venezia - Benevento	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLLW
- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie B
08.10.22	Ternana - Palermo	3:0 ✺
01.10.22	Cittadella - Ternana	0:2 ✺
18.09.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Parma - Ternana	2:3 ✺
03.09.22	Ternana - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
25.04.22	Benevento - Ternana	1:2
10.12.21	Ternana - Benevento	0:2
04.04.17	Benevento - Ternana	2:1
07.11.16	Ternana - Benevento	0:1

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