Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Final

Date: 27 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
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Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport 360
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
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Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
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United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 5, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Benfica		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.1	4.75
	1.6	4	5
	1.65	4.2	5
	1.65	4.09	5.23
	1.57	3.9	5
	1.67	4.24	5.43
	1.83	3.78	4.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.87)	4.04 ↑ (3.8)	4.94 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
57.2%

Draw
23.5%

Fenerbahçe
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

25.3%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

24.3%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.7%	12.1%	20.2%

Benfica - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: 98 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 67 - 68.4%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 20 - 20.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 11.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 59.2% – 77.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Benfica (2.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Fenerbahçe (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Benfica (2.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Benfica (2.20) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

TQ, OT - Benfica (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (37 of 45 users predict this - 82.22%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 55 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 46 - 83.6%). Fenerbahçe (votes: 3 - 5.5%). Tie (votes: 6 - 10.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 7. Akturkoglu K. 14. Pavlidis V.	40. Livakovic D. (G) 27. Semedo N. 18. Muldur M. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 24. Oosterwolde J. 33. Brown A. 7. Fred 34. Amrabat S. 53. Szymanski S. 19. En Nesyri Y. 94. Talisca
Substitutes
39. Araujo H. 44. Araujo T. 47. Gouveia T. 9. Ivanovic F. 3. Obrador R. 64. Oliveira G. 25. Prestianni G. 86. Prioste D. 71. Santos L. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J.	95. Akcicek Y. 70. Aydin O. 14. Demir Y. E. 6. Djiku A. 10. Duran J. 1. Egribayat I. (G) 28. Elmaz B. 17. Kahveci I. C. 22. Mercan L. 4. Soyuncu C. 20. Under C. 5. Yuksek I.
Coaches
Lage B.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Semedo N. ↓, Soyuncu C. ↑,
30', Amrabat S. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Akturkoglu K. ⚽, Barreiro L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Amrabat S. ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
64', Lage B. 🟨,
65', Muldur M. ↓, Aydin O. ↑,
65', Brown A. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
69', Barreiro L. 🟨,
77', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
77', Pavlidis V. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
79', Talisca 🟨,
82', Talisca 🟨,
85', Silva A. 🟨,
87', Soyuncu C. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 3.

Benfica has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fenerbahçe has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Benfica is the team to beat.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Florentino (Red Card) Manu (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Alvarez E. (Inactive) Diego Carlos (Inactive) Fall A. (Inactive) Mimovic O. (Inactive) Mor E. (Inactive) Nene D. (Inactive) Rodrigo Becao (Knee Injury) Tosun C. (Groin Injury) Yandas M. (Knock)

We predict that Benfica will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
23.08.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.08.25	Fenerbahçe - Benfica	0:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
16.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Benfica - Nice	2:0 ✺
06.08.25	Nice - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTWWW
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
23.08.25	Fenerbahçe - Kocaelispor	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.08.25	Fenerbahçe - Benfica	0:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
16.08.25	Göztepe - Fenerbahçe	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Fenerbahçe - Feyenoord	5:2 ✺
06.08.25	Feyenoord - Fenerbahçe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
20.08.25	Fenerbahçe - Benfica	0:0
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	3:2
UEFA Champions League
14.08.18	Fenerbahçe - Benfica	1:1
07.08.18	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	1:0
UEFA Europa League
02.05.13	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	3:1
25.04.13	Fenerbahçe - Benfica	1:0

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