Match Info

Championship - Round 3

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)


	Birmingham City		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.49	4.2	7
	1.49	4.27	6.87	Watch
	1.49	4.26	7.49
	1.50	4.04	6.72	Watch
	1.44	4	7
	1.5	4.2	6.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.53)	4.19 ↓ (4.33)	6.91 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
63.7%

Draw
22.6%

Oxford United
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

21.7%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

21.3%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	5.9%	11.8%

Birmingham City - Oxford United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Birmingham (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Allsop R. (G) 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 5. Neumann P. 4. Klarer C. (C) 2. Laird E. 18. Willumsson W. T. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 24. Iwata T. 10. Gray D. 28. Stansfield J. 9. Furuhashi K.	1. Cumming J. (G) 24. ter Avest H. 6. Helik M. 2. Long S. 15. Spencer B. 22. Leigh G. 19. Goodrham T. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 23. Dembele S. 14. De Keersmaecker B. 27. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
14. Anderson K. 25. Beadle J. (G) 41. Cashin E. 7. Doyle T. 33. Ducksch M. 17. Dykes L. 27. Fujimoto K. 19. Gardner-Hickman T. 12. Leonard M.	20. Bradshaw T. 26. Currie J. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 17. Mills S. 5. Moore E. 10. Phillips M. 7. Placheta P. 4. Vaulks W.
Coaches
Davies C.	Rowett G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Paik Seung-Ho ⚽, Laird E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Furuhashi K. ↓, Doyle T. ↑,
68', Goodrham T. ↓, Placheta P. ↑,
68', Lankshear W. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
76', De Keersmaecker B. ↓, Vaulks W. ↑,
76', ter Avest H. ↓, Phillips M. ↑,
85', Gray D. ↓, Anderson K. ↑,
86', Dembele S. ↓, Mills S. ↑,
88', Stansfield J. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,

Preview

Birmingham is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Oxford has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Oxford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Oxford has had a series of home games.

In this match, Birmingham is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Birmingham: Ducksch M. (Calf Injury) Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Oxford: Brown C. (Knee Injury) Harris L. (Ankle Injury) ter Haar Romeny O. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: De Keersmaecker B. (Inactive) Placheta P. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Birmingham won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League Championship
16.08.25	Blackburn Rovers - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.25	Birmingham City - Sheffield United	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
08.08.25	Birmingham City - Ipswich Town	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Birmingham City - Nottingham Forest	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Northampton Town - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWTWL
- Oxford United
English League Championship
17.08.25	Hull City - Oxford United	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Oxford United - Colchester United	1:0 ✺
English League Championship
09.08.25	Oxford United - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Oxford United - Málaga	3:0 ✺
29.07.25	Oxford United - Leganés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.07.17	Oxford United - Birmingham City	0:2
English League Cup
09.08.16	Birmingham City - Oxford United	0:1 ET
Club Friendly
20.07.13	Oxford United - Birmingham City	1:1

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