Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Dovalo P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports, TNT Sports Premium
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3
Portugal	Sport TV6
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3
World	Onefootball, TyC Sports Internacional


	Boca Juniors		Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.6	9	Watch
	1.44	3.9	8
	1.52	3.65	7.6	Watch
	1.53	3.76	8.56
	1.51	3.73	8.08	Watch
	1.44	3.4	8
	1.5	3.63	10.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.44)	3.67 ↓ (3.88)	8.48 ↓ (9.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
63.2%

Draw
25.7%

Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza
11.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

24.3%

10.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

15.5%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (-21.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Boca Juniors that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Boca Juniors - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Gimnasia Mendoza will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Boca Juniors (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Boca Juniors (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchesin A. (G) 23. Weigandt M. 2. Di Lollo L. 32. Costa A. 3. Blanco L. 25. Ascacibar S. 18. Delgado M. 15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 16. Miguel Merentiel (C) 28. Bareiro A. 11. Janson L.	31. Petruchi L. (G) 22. Franco J. 4. Munoz E. 6. Gonzales 24. Saavedra F. 32. Paredes L. 8. Linares N. 21. Antonini F. (C) 26. Lencioni F. 11. Rodriguez S. 29. Modica A.
Substitutes
36. Aranda T. 30. Belmonte T. 27. Braida M. 12. Brey L. (G) 4. Figal J. 37. Gelini G. 48. Gorosito D. 21. Herrera A. 5. Paredes L. 26. Pellegrino M. 22. Zenon K. 41. Zufiaurre I.	27. Armoa B. 5. Barboza N. 42. Carrera L. 19. Ceballos J. 7. Cingolani L. 30. Fernandez E. 9. Ferreyra B. 2. Mondino D. 3. Recalde M. 1. Roggero S. (G) 15. Sanchez U. 35. Simoni V.
Coaches
Ubeda C.	Broggi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Delgado M. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Paredes L. ⚽, Lencioni F. (A),
32', Ascacibar S. 🟨,
40', Bareiro A. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Miguel Merentiel ⚽, Bareiro A. (A),
45+1', Petruchi L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Modica A. ↓, Simoni V. ↑,
46', Franco J. ↓, Barboza N. ↑,
52', Barboza N. 🟨,
53', Alarcon Cepeda W. H. ↓, Zenon K. ↑,
53', Janson L. ↓, Paredes L. ↑,
53', Delgado M. ↓, Aranda T. ↑,
63', Rodriguez S. ↓, Armoa B. ↑,
63', Antonini F. ↓, Sanchez U. ↑,
63', Sanchez U. 🟨,
64', Lencioni F. 🟨,
75', Ascacibar S. ↓, Herrera A. ↑,
77', Paredes L. ↓, Recalde M. ↑,
90+2', Bareiro A. ↓, Zufiaurre I. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 13).

Recent performances by Boca Juniors have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gimnasia Mendoza's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Boca Juniors has had a series of home games.

In this match, Boca Juniors is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Gimenez M. (Groin Injury) Herrera A. (Hamstring Injury) Paredes L. (Ankle Injury) Velasco A. (Knee Injury) Zeballos E. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Gimnasia Mendoza: Andrada B. (Muscle Injury) Barboza N. (Injury) O'Connor T. (Knee Injury) Romano N. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Copa Argentina
24.02.26	Boca Juniors - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.02.26	Boca Juniors - Racing	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Boca Juniors - Platense	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Boca Juniors - Newells Old Boys	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WTTLW
- Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.02.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Independiente	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Gimnasia La Plata	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Instituto Córdoba	1:0 ✺
02.02.26	Unión Santa Fe - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLLWL

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