Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Athletic Club Boise Soccer Stadium (Expo Idaho) (Boise, ID)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Boise		Monterey Bay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.18	3.34	2.89
	2.23	2.67	3.87	Watch
	2.2	3.1	2.8
	2.21	3.3	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.41)	3.1 ↓ (3.44)	3.11 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boise
41.3%

Draw
29.4%

Monterey Bay
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

26.5%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

25.8%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Monterey Bay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boise than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Monterey Bay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Boise - Monterey Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Mazzola J. (G) 2. Ricketts J. 5. Ndiaye M. 16. Crull J. 14. Moon N. 7. Bodily B. 6. Adams C. (C) 8. Gasso D. 3. Oyler K. 10. Kostyshyn D. 22. Amang T.	1. Delgado F. (G) 6. Malesevic L. 5. Gordon N. (C) 32. Farnsworth Z. 3. Ritchie S. 23. Blancas E. 14. Nakamura R. 4. Ross N. 19. Nadje C. 11. Leggett W. 20. Paul I.
Substitutes
17. Hanson J. 18. Kliewer J. (G) 9. Luan Brito 66. Mayaka P. 11. Moshobane T. 33. Sargis H. 27. Stephens J. 23. Yehya O.	18. Belmar J. 9. Bidois R. 31. Dalton C. (G) 25. Egwu K. 22. Garcia J. 8. Lomtadze G. 7. Rebollar A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
9', 0 - 1, Blancas E. ⚽,
18', Blancas E. 🟨,
20', 0 - 2, Leggett W. ⚽, Nakamura R. (A),
23', Gordon N. 🟨,
30', 1 - 2, Kostyshyn D. ⚽, Bodily B. (A),
34', 1 - 3, Nadje C. ⚽, Paul I. (A),
38', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
41', Farnsworth Z. 🟨,
45', Nadje C. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Oyler K. ↓, Luan Brito ↑,
46', Ndiaye M. ↓, Sargis H. ↑,
51', 2 - 3, Gasso D. ⚽,
55', 3 - 3, Crull J. ⚽, Bodily B. (A),
60', Leggett W. ↓, Rebollar A. ↑,
64', Nadje C. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
64', Crull J. ↓, Mayaka P. ↑,
67', Ross N. ↓, Belmar J. ↑,
68', Blancas E. ↓, Bidois R. ↑,
73', Gordon N. 🟨,
74', Adams C. ↓, Moshobane T. ↑,
85', Moon N. ↓, Hanson J. ↑,
86', 4 - 3, Amang T. ⚽,
89', Mayaka P. 🟨,

Preview

Boise is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Monterey Bay has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Boise may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Boise
USL League One
13.05.26	Boise - Naples	2:0 ✺
06.05.26	Charlotte Independence - Boise	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Boise - Chattanooga Red Wolves	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Las Vegas Lights - Boise	1:1 ✺
USL League One
18.04.26	Boise - Westchester SC	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWTW
- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
08.05.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
03.05.26	Monterey Bay - Tulsa	1:2 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Monterey Bay - Oakland Roots	2:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Monterey Bay	4:1 ✺
11.04.26	Indy Eleven - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLWLL

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