Match Info

League One - Round 7

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Bolton Wanderers		AFC Wimbledon

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.2	7	Watch
	1.5	4.1	6.25
	1.46	4.25	6.4	Watch
	1.48	4.29	7.2
	1.53	3.88	6.33	Watch
	1.67	3.5	5
	1.49	4.25	6.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.62)	4.07 ↑ (3.9)	6.43 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
62.3%

Draw
23.1%

AFC Wimbledon
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

24.1%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

23.1%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	11.8%	5.9%

Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Wimbledon (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -1 - Bolton (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Wimbledon (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sharman-Lowe T. (G) 2. Dacres-Cogley J. 3. Forino-Joseph C. 6. Johnston G. (C) 25. Conway M. 16. Morley A. 4. Simons X. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 17. Randall J. 11. Gale T. 48. Burstow M.	1. Bishop N. (G) 2. Asiimwe N. 33. Ogundere I. 31. Lewis J. 26. Harbottle R. 3. Seddon S. 11. Browne M. 4. Reeves J. (C) 12. Smith A. 21. Hippolyte M. 14. Stevens M.
Substitutes
20. Cissoko I. 10. Dalby S. 21. Erhahon E. 24. Forss M. 45. McAtee J. 27. Miller T. (G) 5. Taylor R.	15. Bauer P. 9. Bugiel O. 16. Hackford A. 8. Maycock C. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 7. Orsi-Dadomo D. 29. Sasu A.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Jackson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Reeves J. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Burstow M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Browne M. 🟥,
53', 2 - 0, Cozier-Duberry A. ⚽, Dacres-Cogley J. (A),
56', Burstow M. ↓, Dalby S. ↑,
62', 3 - 0, Randall J. ⚽, Conway M. (A),
66', Randall J. ↓, Forss M. ↑,
67', Harbottle R. ↓, Sasu A. ↑,
67', Stevens M. ↓, Bugiel O. ↑,
67', Hippolyte M. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
69', Gale T. 🟨,
71', Forino-Joseph C. 🟨,
74', Lewis J. 🟨,
78', Conway M. ↓, Taylor R. ↑,
78', Gale T. ↓, Cissoko I. ↑,
78', Cozier-Duberry A. ↓, McAtee J. ↑,
88', Smith A. ↓, Maycock C. ↑,
88', Asiimwe N. ↓, Bauer P. ↑,
90+1', Lewis J. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 1.

Bolton has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Wimbledon has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Wimbledon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bolton is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Bolton: Adeboyejo V. (Knee Injury) Dempsey K. (Knee Injury) Forrester W. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bolton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Bolton Wanderers - Rotherham United	1:0 ✺
English League One
30.08.25	Blackpool - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Bolton Wanderers - Lincoln City	1:1 ✺
20.08.25	Bolton Wanderers - Reading	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Barnsley - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WTTTT
- AFC Wimbledon
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	AFC Wimbledon - Stevenage Borough	1:5 ✺
English League One
30.08.25	Bradford City - AFC Wimbledon	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Reading - AFC Wimbledon	2:1 ✺
English League One
23.08.25	AFC Wimbledon - Barnsley	2:0 ✺
19.08.25	AFC Wimbledon - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
19.02.22	Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon	4:0
14.08.21	AFC Wimbledon - Bolton Wanderers	3:3
07.03.20	AFC Wimbledon - Bolton Wanderers	0:0
07.12.19	Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon	2:2
04.03.17	Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon	1:1
13.08.16	AFC Wimbledon - Bolton Wanderers	1:2

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