Match Info

League One - Round 5

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: The Cherry Red Records Stadium (London)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	AFC Wimbledon		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.15	Watch
	2.85	3.3	2.37
	3.05	3.45	2.18	Watch
	3.22	3.62	2.24
	3.41	3.18	2.16	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.4
	3.14	3.44	2.18	Watch
	3	3.4	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (3)	3.37 ↑ (3.25)	2.25 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Wimbledon
30.5%

Draw
27.8%

Barnsley
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

28.1%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

27.2%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Barnsley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	22.2%	44.4%

AFC Wimbledon - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Wimbledon will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Barnsley will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barnsley: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Wimbledon (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Barnsley (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Wimbledon (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Wimbledon (votes: 2 - 25%). Barnsley (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bishop N. (G) 33. Ogundere I. 6. Johnson R. 26. Harbottle R. 2. Asiimwe N. 12. Smith A. 4. Reeves J. (C) 21. Hippolyte M. 3. Seddon S. 11. Browne M. 14. Stevens M.	1. Cooper M. (G) 27. Watson T. 5. Shepherd J. 32. Earl J. 14. Ogbeta N. 48. Connell L. (C) 22. Kelly P. 7. Vickers C. 8. Phillips A. 40. Keillor-Dunn D. 10. McGoldrick D.
Substitutes
. Bauer P. 9. Bugiel O. 16. Hackford A. 8. Maycock C. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 7. Orsi-Dadomo D. 29. Sasu A.	29. Barratt C. 30. Bland J. 19. Cleary R. 23. Farrugia N. 51. Flavell K. (G) 3. Russell J. 45. Yoganathan V.
Coaches
Jackson J.	Hourihane C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Ogundere I. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Stevens M. ⚽, Hippolyte M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Earl J. 🟨,
50', Seddon S. 🟨,
62', Kelly P. ↓, Yoganathan V. ↑,
62', Ogbeta N. ↓, Farrugia N. ↑,
64', Stevens M. ↓, Bugiel O. ↑,
65', Browne M. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Hackford A. ⚽, Smith A. (A),
73', Connell L. ↓, Russell J. ↑,
73', McGoldrick D. ↓, Cleary R. ↑,
77', Watson T. ↓, Bland J. ↑,
85', Hippolyte M. ↓, Maycock C. ↑,

Preview

Wimbledon has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Barnsley is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There are questionable in Wimbledon: Lewis J. (Injury) Seddon S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Barnsley: Kelly P. (Injury) Roberts M. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Wimbledon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Last Results with these Odds

Barnsley - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.49%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Wimbledon
English League One
19.08.25	AFC Wimbledon - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Reading - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Gillingham - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 penalties ✺
English League One
09.08.25	AFC Wimbledon - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
01.08.25	Luton Town - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LWWWL
- Barnsley FC
English League One
19.08.25	Peterborough United - Barnsley	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Barnsley - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.25	Barnsley - Fleetwood Town	3:2 penalties ✺
English League One
09.08.25	Barnsley - Burton Albion	3:2 ✺
02.08.25	Plymouth Argyle - Barnsley	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
19.01.19	AFC Wimbledon - Barnsley	1:4
18.08.18	Barnsley - AFC Wimbledon	0:0

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