Match Info

League One - Round 4

Date: 19 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: The Cherry Red Records Stadium (London)

Referee: Rock D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	AFC Wimbledon		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.15
	3.2	3.35	2.18	Watch
	3.69	3.44	2.11
	3.46	2.87	2.31	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.15
	3.29	3.34	2.24	Watch
	3.05	3.1	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.89)	3.24 ↑ (3.13)	2.18 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Wimbledon
28.1%

Draw
28.9%

Cardiff City
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

28.3%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

27%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	5.9%	70.6%

AFC Wimbledon - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Wimbledon will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Cardiff will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cardiff: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cardiff City will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bishop N. (G) 2. Asiimwe N. 33. Ogundere I. 31. Lewis J. 6. Johnson R. 3. Seddon S. 12. Smith A. 4. Reeves J. (C) 21. Hippolyte M. 7. Orsi-Dadomo D. 14. Stevens M.	13. Trott N. (G) 44. Kpakio R. 2. Fish W. 48. Lawlor D. 3. Bagan J. 27. Colwill J. 6. Wintle R. 45. Ashford C. 10. Colwill R. (C) 11. Tanner O. 22. Salech Y.
Substitutes
11. Browne M. 9. Bugiel O. 16. Hackford A. 26. Harbottle R. 8. Maycock C. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 29. Sasu A.	12. Chambers C. 39. Davies I. 24. King E. 47. Robinson C. 14. Turnbull D. 41. Turner M. (G) 16. Willock C.
Coaches
Jackson J.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Lewis J. ↓, Harbottle R. ↑,
34', Stevens M. 🟨,
40', Salech Y. 🟨,
45+4', Tanner O. ↓, Willock C. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', Hippolyte M. ↓, Browne M. ↑,
63', Stevens M. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
63', Orsi-Dadomo D. ↓, Bugiel O. ↑,
64', Colwill J. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
64', Ashford C. ↓, Davies I. ↑,
64', Salech Y. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
71', Lawlor D. 🟨,
82', Bagan J. ↓, Chambers C. ↑,
89', Seddon S. ↓, Sasu A. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 1, Davies I. ⚽,
90+6', Browne M. 🟨,

Preview

Wimbledon has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cardiff is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Wimbledon has had a series of away games.

Cardiff is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cardiff: Robertson A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Wimbledon: Hackford A. (Injury) Johnson R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Ng P. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Wimbledon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Wimbledon - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 30.66%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Cardiff City - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 41.03%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Wimbledon
English League One
16.08.25	Reading - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Gillingham - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 penalties ✺
English League One
09.08.25	AFC Wimbledon - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
01.08.25	Luton Town - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Southend United - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWWLL
- Cardiff City
English League One
16.08.25	Cardiff City - Rotherham United	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Cardiff City - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
07.08.25	Port Vale - Cardiff City	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Cardiff City - Peterborough United	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Notts County - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
11.08.15	Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon	1:0

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