Match Info

Championship - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bolton Wanderers		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.60	2.30	Watch
	2.60	3.80	2.40
	2.60	3.65	2.43	Watch
	2.82	3.85	2.43
	2.54	3.84	2.51	Watch
	2.75	3.80	2.35
	2.90	3.63	2.37	Watch
	2.70	3.65	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.65)	3.73 ↑ (3.55)	2.39 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
34.9%

Draw
25.4%

Cardiff City
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

26.3%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

25.8%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Cardiff will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bolton (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bazunu G. (G) 22. Larrazabal G. 18. Toal E. (C) 6. Davies B. 25. Conway M. 8. Sheehan J. 21. Erhahon E. 16. Iling Junior S. 20. Rodrigues R. 7. Dong K. 10. Dalby S.	1. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. (C) 5. Bielik K. 4. Osho G. 3. Bagan J. 18. Robertson A. 27. Colwill J. 11. Tanner O. 8. Moylan J. 16. Willock C. 9. Salech Y.
Substitutes
9. Bair T. 1. Bonham J. (G) 14. Famewo A. 11. Gale T. 39. Hardie R. 17. Ito A. 45. McAtee J. 26. Nelson J. 4. Simons X.	45. Ashford C. 44. Kpakio R. 43. Moreno P. 47. Robinson C. 23. Scanlon C. 33. Tankiewicz R. 14. Turnbull D. 41. Turner M. (G) 30. Tyrer H. (G)
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Davies B. 🟨,
32', Dong K. 🟨,
37', Iling Junior S. 🟨,
42', Colwill J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dalby S. ↓, Bair T. ↑,
46', Iling Junior S. ↓, Gale T. ↑,
54', Ng P. 🟨,
59', Colwill J. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
64', Rodrigues R. ↓, Ito A. ↑,
74', Willock C. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
75', Salech Y. ↓, Robinson C. ↑,
75', Dong K. ↓, Nelson J. ↑,
78', Nelson J. 🟨,
83', Erhahon E. ↓, Hardie R. ↑,
90', 1 - 0, Gale T. ⚽, Bair T. (A),
90+1', Gale T. 🟨,
90+2', Bagan J. ↓, Scanlon C. ↑,
90+2', Robertson A. ↓, Kpakio R. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 21 and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 2.

Bolton has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cardiff has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Bolton: Stephenson L. (Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: Chambers C. (Knee Injury) Fish W. (Hernia) Lawlor D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bolton: Brunt L. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bolton won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1.7:0.8).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Cardiff: 1.1% Bolton: 0.74%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Bolton	8	3	1	4	11:15	-4	10
21	Cardiff	8	1	4	3	10:12	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.23%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Cardiff City - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.51%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League Championship
08.09.26	Bolton Wanderers - West Ham United	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Millwall - Bolton Wanderers	4:0 ✺
01.09.26	Sheffield United - Bolton Wanderers	3:2 ✺
29.08.26	Bolton Wanderers - Lincoln City	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Queens Park Rangers - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLLT
- Cardiff City
English League Championship
08.09.26	Cardiff City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Portsmouth - Cardiff City	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Queens Park Rangers - Cardiff City	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Cardiff City - Sheffield United	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Cardiff City - Norwich City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
11.04.26	Cardiff City - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
25.10.25	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	1:0
English League Championship
13.02.18	Cardiff City - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
23.12.17	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	2:0
23.04.16	Cardiff City - Bolton Wanderers	2:1
05.12.15	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	2:3
06.04.15	Cardiff City - Bolton Wanderers	0:3

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