Match Info

Championship - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Portsmouth		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.40	2.75	Watch
	2.35	3.60	2.85
	2.23	3.50	2.95	Watch
	2.45	3.69	2.92
	2.44	3.61	2.73	Watch
	2.40	3.60	2.85
	2.34	3.48	2.84	Watch
	2.40	3.50	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.53)	3.55 ↑ (3.26)	2.84 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
39.9%

Draw
26.7%

Cardiff City
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

28.6%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

27.5%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.6%	36.8%	10.5%

Portsmouth - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Cardiff will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portsmouth: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bielica D. (G) 24. Devlin T. 2. Arthur B. 6. Shaughnessy C. 16. Meghoma J. 7. Pack M. (C) 19. Shein R. R. 11. Kamara A. 10. Segecic A. 17. Shade T. 29. Marezi	1. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. (C) 5. Bielik K. 4. Osho G. 3. Bagan J. 18. Robertson A. 14. Turnbull D. 11. Tanner O. 16. Willock C. 8. Moylan J. 9. Salech Y.
Substitutes
38. Adams E. 27. Bailey O. 9. Bishop C. 25. Kavuma McQueen R. 32. Kenny E. 37. Mohamed I. 5. Poole R. 1. Schmid N. (G) 22. Swanson Z.	45. Ashford C. 27. Colwill J. 10. Colwill R. 44. Kpakio R. 47. Robinson C. 23. Scanlon C. 33. Tankiewicz R. 41. Turner M. (G) 30. Tyrer H. (G)
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Bielik K. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Shaughnessy C. ⚽, Shade T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 2 - 0, Marezi ⚽, Segecic A. (A),
60', Tanner O. 🟨,
63', Turnbull D. ↓, Colwill J. ↑,
64', Willock C. ↓, Colwill R. ↑,
65', Shein R. R. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
65', Meghoma J. ↓, Swanson Z. ↑,
69', Marezi ↓, Bishop C. ↑,
69', Shade T. ↓, Kavuma McQueen R. ↑,
83', Tanner O. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,
86', Robertson A. 🟨,
90+1', Bielik K. ↓, Scanlon C. ↑,
90+3', Salech Y. 🟨,
90+4', Pack M. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Portsmouth may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Anderson K. (Muscle Injury) Kosznovszky M. (Knee Injury) Murphy J. (Injury) Ogilvie C. (Knee Injury) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: Chambers C. (Knee Injury) Fish W. (Hernia) Lawlor D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Farrell J. (Groin Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Cardiff: 0.41% Portsmouth: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11:14	-3	7

Last Results with these Odds

Cardiff City - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.52%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
01.09.26	Portsmouth - Derby County	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Bristol City - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Lincoln City - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
15.08.26	Portsmouth - Queens Park Rangers	1:3 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	West Ham United - Portsmouth	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLL
- Cardiff City
English League Championship
02.09.26	Queens Park Rangers - Cardiff City	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Cardiff City - Sheffield United	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Cardiff City - Norwich City	1:2 ✺
English League Championship
22.08.26	Derby County - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
17.08.26	Cardiff City - Wrexham	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
11.02.25	Portsmouth - Cardiff City	2:1
22.10.24	Cardiff City - Portsmouth	2:0
English League Cup
09.08.22	Cardiff City - Portsmouth	0:3
08.08.17	Cardiff City - Portsmouth	2:1 ET
English League Championship
21.01.12	Cardiff City - Portsmouth	N/A

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