Match Info

Championship - Round 6

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff)

Referee: Allison S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cardiff City		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.6	3.25	Watch
	2.05	3.70	3.40
	2.08	3.49	3.45	Watch
	2.13	3.65	3.44
	2.13	3.75	3.15	Watch
	2.11	3.6	3.4
	2.14	3.75	3.38	Watch
	2.09	3.65	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.15)	3.65 ↑ (3.52)	3.34 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff City
45.5%

Draw
26.1%

Stoke City
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

26.4%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

23.9%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cardiff City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stoke City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	25%	18.7%

Cardiff City - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Stoke will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cardiff: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Cardiff (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Stoke (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Stoke (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trott N. (G) 38. Ng P. (C) 5. Bielik K. 4. Osho G. 3. Bagan J. 18. Robertson A. 27. Colwill J. 11. Tanner O. 8. Moylan J. 16. Willock C. 9. Salech Y.	1. Johansson V. (C) 16. Wilmot B. 40. Talovierov M. 5. Graham L. 2. Johnson B. 13. Devenny J. 27. Soumare D. 8. Galbraith E. 21. Bombino L. 15. Hirst G. 9. Bozenik R.
Substitutes
40. Anyadike N. 45. Ashford C. 44. Kpakio R. 43. Moreno P. 47. Robinson C. 23. Scanlon C. 33. Tankiewicz R. 14. Turnbull D. 30. Tyrer H. (G)	43. Anderson F. 10. Bae Jun-Ho 17. Bocat E. 11. Cisse L. 24. Griffiths J. (G) 42. Manhoef M. 7. McGlynn J. 4. Pearson B. 19. Rigo T.
Coaches
Barry-Murphy B.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Johnson B. ⚽, Bozenik R. (A),
27', Wilmot B. 🟨,
45+2', Ng P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Bombino L. ↓, Bocat E. ↑,
59', Hirst G. ↓, Bae Jun-Ho ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Colwill J. ⚽, Willock C. (A),
69', Bozenik R. ↓, McGlynn J. ↑,
69', Devenny J. ↓, Cisse L. ↑,
81', Graham L. 🟨,
82', Willock C. ↓, Ashford C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 2.

Cardiff is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Stoke has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cardiff is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cardiff: Chambers C. (Knee Injury) Fish W. (Hernia) Lawlor D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Cresswell A. (Knee Injury) Gibson B. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Ampah A. (Hamstring Injury) Ingelsson S. (Injury) Tchamadeu J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1:0.7).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Cardiff: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15:13	2	16
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11:14	-3	7

Last Results with these Odds

Cardiff City - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 43.09%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff City
English League Championship
05.09.26	Portsmouth - Cardiff City	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Queens Park Rangers - Cardiff City	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Cardiff City - Sheffield United	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Cardiff City - Norwich City	1:2 ✺
English League Championship
22.08.26	Derby County - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTLT
- Stoke City
English League Championship
05.09.26	Stoke City - Charlton Athletic	4:0 ✺
01.09.26	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Stoke City	4:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Stoke City - Hull City	1:2 penalties ✺
English League Championship
22.08.26	Southampton - Stoke City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
12.04.25	Cardiff City - Stoke City	0:1
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Stoke City - Cardiff City	3:4 penalties
English League Championship
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2
24.02.24	Cardiff City - Stoke City	2:1
04.11.23	Stoke City - Cardiff City	0:0
22.04.23	Cardiff City - Stoke City	1:1
10.12.22	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2

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