Match Info

League One - Play Offs - Final

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Wembley Stadium (London)

Referee: Smith J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bolton Wanderers		Stockport County

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.8
	2.48	3.05	2.92	Watch
	2.53	3.25	2.96
	2.56	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.5	3.1	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.68)	3.13 ↓ (3.38)	2.86 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
37.5%

Draw
29.8%

Stockport County
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

27.6%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

27.2%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Stockport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stockport County than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stockport County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	64.3%	14.3%

Bolton Wanderers - Stockport County Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Stockport will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bonham J. (G) 14. Osei-Tutu J. 3. Forino-Joseph C. 6. Johnston G. (C) 25. Conway M. 8. Sheehan J. 4. Simons X. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 27. Rodrigues R. 11. Gale T. 48. Burstow M.	34. Addai C. (G) 2. Dacres-Cogley J. 19. Wootton K. 15. Pye E. 14. Edun T. 27. Bailey O. 26. Norwood O. (C) 23. Osborn B. 28. Stokes J. 29. Sidibeh A. 20. Barry L.
Substitutes
29. Christie C. 20. Cissoko I. 10. Dalby S. 22. Dempsey K. 21. Erhahon E. 23. Harrington D. (G) 45. McAtee J.	22. Andresson B. 16. Connolly C. 7. Diamond J. 18. Fiorini L. 1. Hinchliffe B. (G) 11. Mothersille M. 9. Olaofe T.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Challinor D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Rodrigues R. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Sidibeh A. ⚽, Bailey O. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
60', Wootton K. 🟨,
62', Simons X. ↓, Dalby S. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Wootton K. (Own goal),
65', Barry L. ↓, Diamond J. ↑,
65', Stokes J. ↓, Andresson B. ↑,
65', Sidibeh A. ↓, Olaofe T. ↑,
72', Burstow M. ↓, McAtee J. ↑,
72', Gale T. ↓, Cissoko I. ↑,
76', Conway M. ↓, Christie C. ↑,
80', Bailey O. 🟨,
81', Osborn B. ↓, Mothersille M. ↑,
81', 3 - 1, Dalby S. ⚽, McAtee J. (A),
90+2', Dacres-Cogley J. 🟥,
90+4', 4 - 1, Rodrigues R. (Penalty Awarded),
90+5', Edun T. ↓, Connolly C. ↑,

Preview

Neutral location - Wembley Stadium.

Bolton is Qualified for League One (Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 1.

Recent performances by Bolton have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Stockport is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Bolton: Blackett-Taylor C. (Thigh Injury) Forss M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Stockport: Camps C. (Inactive) Connolly C. (Injury) Hills B. (Knee Injury) Hoskonen A. (Muscle Injury) Onyango T. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Bolton: Dempsey K. (Inactive) Kenny J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Stockport: Olowu J. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bolton won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Outrights of English League One for now

Stockport County: 23.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Stockport County	9	5	1	3	20:11	9	16

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.85%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Stockport County - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.51%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
14.05.26	Bradford City - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Bolton Wanderers - Bradford City	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Bolton Wanderers - Luton Town	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Bradford City - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Bolton Wanderers - Huddersfield Town	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLTT
- Stockport County
English League One
13.05.26	Stockport County - Stevenage Borough	2:0 ✺
09.05.26	Stevenage Borough - Stockport County	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Barnsley - Stockport County	1:3 ✺
28.04.26	Stockport County - Port Vale	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Stockport County - Peterborough United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
06.04.26	Bolton Wanderers - Stockport County	2:2
03.08.25	Stockport County - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
15.03.25	Bolton Wanderers - Stockport County	0:1
09.11.24	Stockport County - Bolton Wanderers	5:0
English EFL Trophy
14.11.23	Stockport County - Bolton Wanderers	0:2
English FA Cup
17.11.21	Stockport County - Bolton Wanderers	5:3 ET
07.11.21	Bolton Wanderers - Stockport County	2:2

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