Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 39

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Edwards M. (Eng)


	Derby County		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.2
	2.3	3.2	3
	2.1	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.45	3.3	3.19
	2.36	3.21	3.36
	2.3	3.3	3
	2.36	3.35	3.04	Watch
	2.19	3.3	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.99)	3.31 ↓ (3.48)	3.16 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
41.4%

Draw
28.6%

Bolton Wanderers
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

26.8%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

25.8%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Derby County - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 35. Nelson C. 3. Forsyth C. 6. Cashin E. 23. Ward J. 32. Adams E. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 17. Sibley L. 7. Barkhuizen T. 25. Gayle D. 11. Mendez-Laing N.	13. Coleman J. (G) 2. Jones G. 5. Santos R. (C) 18. Toal E. 8. Sheehan J. 12. Dacres-Cogley J. 4. Thomason G. 19. Maghoma P. 17. Ogbeta N. 28. Collins A. 9. Bodvarsson J.
Substitutes
27. Blackett-Taylor C. 20. Elder C. 13. Loach S. (G) 12. Smith K. 16. Thompson L. 10. Waghorn M. 2. Wilson K.	22. Dempsey K. 15. Forrester W. 40. Hutchinson L. (G) 3. Iredale J. 35. Jerome C. 16. Morley A. 27. Williams R.
Coaches
Warne P.	Evatt I.

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Bolton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Derby will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Derby won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 25-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 18-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
12.03.24	Derby County - Reading	2:1 ✺
09.03.24	Bristol Rovers - Derby County	0:3 ✺
02.03.24	Derby County - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
27.02.24	Derby County - Charlton Athletic	1:2 ✺
24.02.24	Barnsley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWLL
- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
12.03.24	Bolton Wanderers - Oxford United	5:0 ✺
09.03.24	Exeter City - Bolton Wanderers	2:2 ✺
05.03.24	Barnsley - Bolton Wanderers	2:2 ✺
02.03.24	Bolton Wanderers - Cambridge United	2:0 ✺
27.02.24	Wigan Athletic - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
02.09.23	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	2:1
21.01.23	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	2:1
27.12.22	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	0:0
English League Championship
13.04.19	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	4:0
29.09.18	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	1:0
07.04.18	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	3:0
19.08.17	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	1:2

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