Match Info

Carioca B1 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday


	Duque de Caxias		Bonsucesso

	1	X	2
	2.68	2.62	2.82
	2.78	2.59	2.78
	2.75	2.65	2.8
	2.42	2.9	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.49)	2.69 ↓ (2.9)	2.83 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Duque de Caxias
34.1%

Draw
33.7%

Bonsucesso
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

31.9%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

32%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duque de Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Bonsucesso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duque de Caxias than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bonsucesso than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Duque de Caxias - Bonsucesso Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
74', 1 - 0, Oliveira R. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca B1 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca B1 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Duque de Caxias is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bonsucesso has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Duque de Caxias won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Duque de Caxias won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Duque de Caxias - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.19%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Duque de Caxias
Brazilian Carioca B1
08.11.25	Carapebus Campos - Duque de Caxias	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Niteroiense - Duque de Caxias	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Duque de Caxias - Nova Cidade	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Duque de Caxias - Paduano	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Friburguense - Duque de Caxias	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTTWW
- Bonsucesso FC
Brazilian Carioca B1
08.11.25	Serrano FC - Bonsucesso	1:0 ✺
05.11.25	Carapebus Campos - Bonsucesso	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Bonsucesso - Petrópolis	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Bonsucesso - Nova Cidade	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Niteroiense - Bonsucesso	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca B1
27.09.25	Bonsucesso - Duque de Caxias	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
11.11.20	Duque de Caxias - Bonsucesso	5:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
30.01.14	Duque de Caxias - Bonsucesso	1:1

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