Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Parque Artigas (Las Piedras)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Boston River		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.5	1.48	Watch
	5.5	3.6	1.58
	6.3	3.8	1.5
	7.16	3.91	1.53
	6.79	4	1.5	Watch
	6.5	3.6	1.53
	6.45	3.65	1.56	Watch
	4.8	3.45	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.25 ↑ (4.8)	3.69 ↑ (3.45)	1.55 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Boston River
14.9%

Draw
25.2%

Peñarol de Montevideo
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.2%

26.7%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

26%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boston River has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peñarol de Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boston River than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Peñarol (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Antunez B. (G) 31. Acosta J. 2. Sotto K. 23. Rivero M. 24. O'Neill Lopez J. S. 5. Barrios F. 10. Amado A. (C) 99. Reyna G. 11. Ramirez G. 22. Martinez F. 9. Gonzalez A.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Escobar F. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 21. Jesus Trindade (C) 5. Remedi E. 8. Fernandez N. 13. Darias E. 77. Angulo L. 10. Fernandez L. 9. Batista F.
Substitutes
8. Bonfiglio F. 14. Dafonte F. 13. Fernandez I. 12. Gonzalez J. (G) 30. Gonzalez M. 32. Gonzalez Y. 26. Munoa F. 21. Perez F. 16. Suhr L. 15. Vazquez L.	19. Arezo M. 18. Barbas G. 1. Britos S. (G) 80. Gonzalez F. 25. Gonzalez M. 26. Madruga A. 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K. 23. Togni G. 32. Umpierrez L.
Coaches
Damonte I.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Darias E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', O'Neill Lopez J. S. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
46', Ramirez G. ↓, Gonzalez Y. ↑,
46', Darias E. ↓, Togni G. ↑,
46', Gonzalez A. 🟨,
53', Remedi E. 🟨,
59', Gonzalez Y. 🟨,
60', Escobar F. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
60', Batista F. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
61', Gonzalez A. ↓, Bonfiglio F. ↑,
71', Angulo L. ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
73', Reyna G. ↓, Munoa F. ↑,
73', Barrios F. ↓, Suhr L. ↑,
78', Lemos M. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
80', 0 - 2, Arezo M. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boston River won 2.

Boston River has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Peñarol is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Boston River won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 16 matches, and goals 15:43. (average 0.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Boston River won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:17. (average 1.1:2.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
11	Boston River	9	2	3	4	10:12	-2	9

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.14%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boston River
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.03.26	Progreso - Boston River	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
09.03.26	Boston River - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.02.26	Cerro - Boston River	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLLWT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Albion Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
23.01.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:3 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.08.25	Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1
15.02.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	1:1
19.10.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:0
20.04.24	Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3
Uruguay Copa
05.02.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.09.23	Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1

Upcoming Matches