Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 24

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Premiere
China	K-Ball
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1, #Vamos
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz


	Botafogo RJ		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	5	Watch
	1.75	3.35	4.95
	1.78	3.5	5.39
	1.82	3.19	4.99	Watch
	1.78	3.51	5.44	Watch
	1.6	3.75	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.58)	3.45 ↓ (3.73)	5.3 ↓ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
54.5%

Draw
27.6%

Atlético Mineiro
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.6%

25.2%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

24.9%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Botafogo RJ's form might have worsened.

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Botafogo RJ, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Botafogo RJ - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Botafogo (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Botafogo (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Botafogo (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo RJ will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 9 - 90%). Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Leo Linck (G) 2. Vitinho 31. Kaio 20. Barboza A. 21. Marcal 28. Newton 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 23. Rodriguez S. 10. Savarino J. 8. Montoro A. 9. Ramos C.	22. Everson (G) 2. Natanael 4. Lyanco 14. Vitor Hugo 6. Alonso J. 38. Caio Paulista 17. Igor Gomes 21. Franco A. 8. Fausto Vera 7. Hulk (C) 18. Reinier
Substitutes
25. Allan 30. Correa J. 6. Cuiabano 57. David Ricardo 26. Gabriel Bahia 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 47. Jeffinho 40. Loor C. (G) 11. Matheus Martins 4. Ponte M. 1. Raul Steffens (G)	11. Bernard 77. Biel 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 25. Gabriel Menino 13. Guilherme Arana 10. Gustavo Scarpa 37. Junior Santos 31. Robert (G) 23. Roman I. 33. Rony
Coaches
Ancelotti D.	Sampaoli J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Lyanco 🟨,
26', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
26', Hulk 🟨,
39', Rodriguez S. 🟨,
45+1', Ramos C. 🟥,
45+3', Marcal 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lyanco ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
46', Caio Paulista ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Rodriguez S. ⚽, Montoro A. (A),
69', Igor Gomes ↓, Rony ↑,
73', Savarino J. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
76', Reinier ↓, Biel ↑,
76', Natanael ↓, Bernard ↑,
83', Montoro A. 🟨,
83', Montoro A. ↓, Cuiabano ↑,
88', Rodriguez S. ↓, Allan ↑,
90+4', Leo Linck 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 2.

Recent performances by Botafogo have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético MG is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Botafogo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Arthur Cabral (Injury) Artur (Calf Injury) Bastos (Knee Injury) Nathan Fernandes (Arm Injury) Neto (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Yellow Cards) Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético MG: Cuello (Injury) Ruan Tressoldi (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 19:19. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.4:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
17.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:3 ✺
14.09.25	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.25	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	4:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.08.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLLWT
- Atlético Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
17.09.25	Bolívar - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.09.25	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Vitória Salvador - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.08.25	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:0
Copa Libertadores
30.11.24	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:3
Brazilian Serie A
20.11.24	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	0:0
07.07.24	Botafogo RJ - Atlético Mineiro	3:0
16.09.23	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:0
07.05.23	Botafogo RJ - Atlético Mineiro	2:0
07.11.22	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	0:2

Upcoming Matches