Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 30

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	Flow Eventos
Brazil	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz
World	OneFootball TV


	Atlético Mineiro		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.30	2.70	Watch
	2.50	3.40	2.70
	2.35	3.35	2.88	Watch
	2.56	3.55	2.86
	2.22	3.6	3.14	Watch
	2.50	3.50	2.80
	2.63	3.33	2.78	Watch
	2.44	3.35	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (1.98)	3.42 ↑ (3.4)	2.83 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
38.5%

Draw
27.8%

Santos
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.7%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Mineiro's form might have worsened.

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Atlético Mineiro - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 2. Natanael 3. Duarte L. 14. Vitor Hugo 36. Pascini K. 21. Franco A. (C) 5. Alexsander 30. Victor Hugo 15. Castano K. 17. Igor Gomes 18. Borbas T.	1. Diogenes (G) 23. Rodinei 4. Lucas Verissimo 15. Willian Arao 31. Escobar G. 48. Gustavo Henrique 28. Oliva C. 8. Gabriel Bontempo 32. Rollheiser B. 7. Everton 9. Gabriel Barbosa (C)
Substitutes
29. Caua 39. Cisse M. 92. Dudu 6. Lodi R. 13. Lyanco 8. Maycon 27. Minda A. 53. Pedro Lemos 23. Preciado A. 19. Reinier 31. Robert (G) 40. Vitao	22. Barreal A. 17. Caballero G. 11. Coutinho 18. Igor Vinicius 34. Joao Paulo (G) 5. Joao Schmidt 45. Lima 14. Luan Peres 30. Miguelito 81. Pierri S. 33. Rony 16. Thaciano
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Cuca

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 8th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1.

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

Recently, Atlético MG has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

Atlético MG is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Atlético MG: Cassierra M. (Injury) Cuello (Yellow Cards) Everson (Foot Injury) Gustavo Scarpa (Inactive) Perez T. (Red Card) Ruan Tressoldi (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Santos: Arthur Melo (Injury) Everton (Inactive) Gabriel Brazao (Shoulder Injury) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Atlético MG: Fred (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Atlético MG has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:27 (averaging 1.4:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlético MG against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 19:6 goals (averaging 2.1:0.7 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Atletico-MG: 0.33% Santos: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 3.65 are the expected chance of winning is 25.53%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
03.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	5:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWTWW
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.26	Santos - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
02.10.26	São Paulo - Santos	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Remo - Santos	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	5:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Santos - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
16.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	5:2 penalties
09.09.26	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
14.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	1:1
16.04.25	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	2:0
27.08.23	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	2:0
23.04.23	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	0:0

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