Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 29

Date: 7 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Brazil	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	Botafogo RJ		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.6	2.15	Watch
	2.95	3.50	2.30
	2.95	3.4	2.22	Watch
	3.17	3.7	2.28
	3.02	3.66	2.26	Watch
	3.1	3.65	2.25
	3.07	3.63	2.27	Watch
	2.95	3.55	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.71)	3.59 ↑ (3.42)	2.24 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
31.2%

Draw
26.5%

Vasco da Gama
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

27.5%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

27.4%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	46.2%	38.5%

Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Botafogo will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Vasco will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Vasco (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Vasco (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vasco (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Batista (G) 2. Vitinho 5. Ferraresi N. 3. Arthur Chaves 13. Alex Telles (C) 75. Huguinho 8. Danilo Santos 6. Medina C. 22. Ziyech H. 11. Matheus Martins 19. Arthur Cabral	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 5. Sosa S. 18. Hinestroza M. 22. Lescano A. 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 9. Colidio F. 19. Bruno Duarte
Substitutes
25. Allan 91. Andrade D. 37. Barria K. 90. Danilo Pereira 7. Junior Santos 59. Kauan Toledo 21. Marcal 33. Monzon L. 29. Paulinho 4. Ponte M. 9. Tiquinho Soares 17. Warleson (G)	28. Adson 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 55. Gabriel Pereira 8. Jair 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 17. Moreira N. 83. Ramon Rique 2. Rodriguez J. 77. Spinelli C. 3. Tche Tche
Coaches
Tite	Emanuel P.

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 12th and 16th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 2.

Botafogo has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Vasco shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Botafogo: Barrera J. (Ankle Injury) Barria K. (Inactive) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Vasco: Brenner (Knee Injury) Gomez A. (Yellow Cards) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Botafogo: Matheus Martins (Lacking Match Fitness).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo has recorded 9 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:21 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Botafogo against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 13:7 goals (averaging 1.9:1 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Botafogo RJ: 0.25% Vasco: 0.15%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Botafogo RJ	28	9	8	11	41:45	-4	35
16	Vasco	27	8	7	12	34:41	-7	31

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 34.75%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
19.09.26	Mirassol - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWTTL
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
19.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Coritiba	5:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.09.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	3:0
Copa do Brasil
11.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	1:2 penalties
27.08.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
12.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
23.02.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:0

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