Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 9

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Usa	Fanatiz


	Botafogo RJ		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.25	Watch
	2.12	3.35	3.25	Watch
	2.28	3.54	3.34
	2.2	3.53	3.23	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.1
	2.24	3.44	3.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.07)	3.41 ↑ (3.23)	3.25 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
43.1%

Draw
27.8%

Mirassol
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

28.7%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

24.2%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Botafogo RJ that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	29.4%	0%

Botafogo RJ - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Botafogo will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raul Steffens (G) 2. Vitinho 15. Bastos 34. Justino G. 13. Alex Telles (C) 88. Edenilson 25. Allan 6. Medina C. 23. Rodriguez S. 19. Arthur Cabral 17. Junior Santos	22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 12. Victor Luis 21. Jose Aldo 25. Neto Moura 11. Negueba 7. Shaylon 77. Alesson 29. Tiquinho Soares
Substitutes
14. Barrera J. 27. Caio Roque 5. Ferraresi N. 75. Huguinho 24. Leo Linck (G) 11. Matheus Martins 10. Montoro A. 16. Nathan Fernandes 28. Newton 4. Ponte M. 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 3. Ythallo	23. Alex Muralha (G) 99. Andre Luis 10. Chico Kim 20. Daniel Borges 8. Denilson 95. Edson Carioca 17. Everton Galdino 18. Gabriel Pires 27. Galeano A. 26. Lucas Mugni 2. Lucas Oliveira 5. Yuri Lara
Coaches
Dias Bellao R.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Arthur Cabral ⚽, Edenilson (A),
21', 1 - 1, Shaylon ⚽,
40', Lucas Oliveira 🟨,
43', 2 - 1, Alex Telles (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', Negueba 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Medina C. 🟨,
48', Vitinho 🟨,
62', Tiquinho Soares 🟨,
62', Rodriguez S. ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
63', Alex Telles ↓, Caio Roque ↑,
64', Jose Aldo ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
66', 3 - 1, Junior Santos ⚽,
70', Medina C. ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
70', Arthur Cabral ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
73', Tiquinho Soares ↓, Edson Carioca ↑,
73', Negueba ↓, Galeano A. ↑,
77', Edenilson ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
77', Shaylon ↓, Denilson ↑,
77', Neto Moura ↓, Gabriel Pires ↑,
90+1', Bastos 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 2, Igor Formiga ⚽, Gabriel Pires (A),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

Botafogo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mirassol is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Botafogo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Botafogo: Allan (Inactive) Barboza A. (Yellow Cards) Correa J. (Inactive) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury) Newton (Shoulder Injury) Ramos C. (Knock)

There will not play in Mirassol: Eduardo (Wrist Injury) Igor Carius (Hamstring Injury) Reinaldo (Yellow Cards)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Botafogo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Mirassol - the odds 3.46 are the expected chance of winning is 26.71%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	4:1 ✺
21.03.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.03.26	Botafogo RJ - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLLL
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
22.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	Mirassol - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
10.03.26	Mirassol - Santos	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Mirassol - Portuguesa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.11.25	Mirassol - Botafogo RJ	0:0
17.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:3

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