Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 4

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Botafogo RJ		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	5	Watch
	1.87	3.3	4.5
	1.78	3.4	5	Watch
	1.78	3.4	5.6
	1.77	3.43	5.21	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4.4
	1.77	3.42	5.15	Watch
	1.78	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.95)	3.39 ↓ (3.6)	4.98 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
52.9%

Draw
28%

São Paulo
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

26.3%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

26.6%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	9.5%	4.8%

Botafogo RJ - São Paulo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo RJ will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. John Victor (G) 2. Vitinho 32. Jair 20. Barboza A. 66. Cuiabano 26. Gregore 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 10. Savarino J. 7. Artur 99. Igor Jesus 11. Matheus Martins	23. Rafael (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 6. Soares C. 25. Alisson 20. Marcos Antonio 47. Matheus Alves 18. Wendell 9. Jonathan Calleri 11. Ferreira
Substitutes
13. Alex Telles 5. Danilo Barbosa 57. David Ricardo 33. Elias Manoel 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 47. Jeffinho 77. Kauan Lindes 24. Leo Linck (G) 28. Newton 6. Patrick de Paula 4. Ponte M. 9. Rwan Cruz	17. Andre Silva 21. Bobadilla D. 13. Diaz E. 43. Felipe Negrucci 2. Igor Vinicius 93. Jandrei (G) 48. Lucas Ferreira 10. Luciano 15. Rodriguinho 22. Ruan Tressoldi 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino
Coaches
Alves R.	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
21', 0 - 1, Ferreira ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Savarino J. ⚽, Artur (A),
35', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
45+13', 1 - 2, Andre Silva ⚽, Ferreira (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Matheus Alves 🟨,
63', Gregore ↓, Patrick de Paula ↑,
65', Wendell ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
65', Matheus Alves ↓, Luciano ↑,
66', Ferreira 🟨,
81', Matheus Martins ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
84', 2 - 2, Igor Jesus ⚽, Savarino J. (A),
87', Ferreira ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
88', Artur ↓, Jeffinho ↑,
88', Vitinho ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
88', Ferraresi N. ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
90+1', Robert Arboleda 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Botafogo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Botafogo is a favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Bastos (Knee Injury) Danilo Barbosa (Pelvis Injury) Marcal (Lacking Match Fitness) Nathan Fernandes (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Inactive) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Inactive) Young (Inactive)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 22:30 (average 1.1:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Botafogo won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:15 (average 1.4:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Carabobo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Juventude	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Universidad de Chile - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.03.25	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWLT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
13.04.25	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	São Paulo - Alianza Lima	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Talleres de Córdoba - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	São Paulo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
08.12.24	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:1
Copa Libertadores
25.09.24	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:2 penalties
18.09.24	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
24.07.24	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	2:2
19.08.23	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	0:0
15.04.23	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:1
09.10.22	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	0:1

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