Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	São Paulo		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.3	5.5	Watch
	1.7	3.6	5.25
	1.66	3.6	5.5
	1.58	3.82	6.09
	1.73	3.5	5.43	Watch
	1.57	3.8	6
	1.75	3.54	5.1	Watch
	1.66	3.6	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.56)	3.6 ↓ (4.02)	5.55 ↓ (5.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
56.7%

Draw
26.3%

Sport Recife
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

23.5%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

27.1%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

São Paulo - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 2. Igor Vinicius 16. Luiz Gustavo 25. Alisson 20. Marcos Antonio 18. Wendell 10. Luciano 9. Jonathan Calleri	22. Caique Franca (G) 32. Hereda 6. Silva J. 44. Chico 16. Igor Carius 14. Rivera C. 27. Oliveira S. 37. Du Queiroz 10. Lucas Lima (C) 92. Pablo 77. Lobato L.
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 21. Bobadilla D. 6. Cedric 13. Diaz E. 43. Felipe Negrucci 32. Ferraresi N. 11. Ferreira 93. Jandrei (G) 48. Lucas Ferreira 47. Matheus Alves 22. Ruan Tressoldi 49. Ryan Francisco	25. Antonio Carlos 38. Arthur Sousa 17. Carlos Alberto 30. Chrystian Barletta 41. Davi (G) 8. Dominguez F. 11. Gustavo Maia 19. Hyoran 3. Lucas Cunha 33. Matheus Alexandre 91. Romarinho 12. Thiago Couto (G)
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Miguel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Jonathan Calleri (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sabino ↓, Ferreira ↑,
46', Wendell ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
59', Lucas Lima 🟨,
62', Lobato L. ↓, Carlos Alberto ↑,
62', Pablo ↓, Arthur Sousa ↑,
69', Luciano ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
69', Marcos Antonio ↓, Matheus Alves ↑,
75', Du Queiroz ↓, Dominguez F. ↑,
75', Lucas Lima ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
75', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
82', Hereda ↓, Hyoran ↑,
90+3', Hyoran 🟨,
90+9', Alisson ↓, Ryan Francisco ↑,
90+11', Igor Carius ↓, Lucas Cunha ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 4.

Two teams are playing changeable.

São Paulo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match São Paulo is a favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Pablo Maia (Inactive) Young (Inactive)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Luiz Gustavo (Inactive) Rodriguinho (Inactive)

Last 18 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 24:10 (average 1.3:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams São Paulo won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:3 (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.03.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	São Paulo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	São Bernardo - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
19.02.25	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWLT
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Sport Recife - Altos	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
22.03.25	Retrô Brasil - Sport Recife	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
15.03.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
01.06.23	São Paulo - Sport Recife	2:3 penalties
17.05.23	Sport Recife - São Paulo	0:2
Brazilian Serie A
27.11.21	São Paulo - Sport Recife	2:0
22.08.21	Sport Recife - São Paulo	0:1
06.12.20	São Paulo - Sport Recife	1:0
23.08.20	Sport Recife - São Paulo	0:1
26.11.18	São Paulo - Sport Recife	0:0

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