Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 16

Date: 21 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Referee: Miranda L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Botafogo SP		Brusque

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.88	4.1	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.8
	2.15	3	3.75
	2.06	3.01	4.37
	2.11	2.88	4.1	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.8
	2.15	2.95	3.84	Watch
	2.09	2.85	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.82)	2.92 ↓ (3.13)	3.96 ↓ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
44.5%

Draw
32%

Brusque
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

29.8%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

31.1%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Botafogo SP's form might have worsened.

Brusque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Botafogo SP, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brusque, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Botafogo SP - Brusque Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Botafogo SP will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Brusque will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo SP: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Michael (G) 8. Alexandre Jesus 9. Alex Sandro 4. Bernardo Schappo 11. Douglas Baggio 3. Fabio Sanches 10. Gustavo Bochecha 100. Jean Victor (C) 5. Joao Costa 2. Matheus Costa 7. Negueba	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 27. Diego Mathias 2. Everton Alemao 3. Ianson 8. Jhemerson 33. Madison 97. Mateus Pivo 9. Olavio 94. Paulinho Moccelin 5. Rodolfo Potiguar 4. Wallace (C)
Substitutes
20. Arthur Mosca 24. Brenno Klippel (G) 15. Carlos Manuel 13. Ericson 18. Fillipe Soutto 19. Jonas Toro 16. Patrick Brey 17. Rafael Castro 14. Thassio 12. Victor Souza (G) 21. Willian Gabriel	66. Alex Ruan 22. Cristovam 11. Diego Tavares 31. Matheus Silva (G) 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 77. Neto 80. Osman 15. Ronei 29. Wellissol
Coaches
Gomes P.	Luizinho Vieira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Alex Sandro ⚽,
12', Everton Alemao 🟨,
45+9', Bernardo Schappo ↓, Ericson ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Madison ↓, Cristovam ↑,
48', Alexandre Jesus 🟨,
55', Neto 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Mateus Pivo ⚽, Diego Mathias (A),
67', Alex Sandro ↓, Jonas Toro ↑,
68', Matheus Costa ↓, Patrick Brey ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Joao Costa ⚽,
78', Gustavo Bochecha ↓, Fillipe Soutto ↑,
83', Everton Alemao ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
83', Rodolfo Potiguar ↓, Osman ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Cristovam ⚽,
90+1', Cristovam 🟨,
90+2', Negueba ↓, Willian Gabriel ↑,
90+3', Olavio ↓, Ronei ↑,
90+5', Wallace 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Botafogo SP has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Brusque is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Brusque could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Botafogo SP will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Brusque: Alex Ruan (Injury) Georgemy (Injury) Guilherme Queiroz (Injury)

There are questionable in Brusque: Luiz Henrique (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
17.07.24	CRB Maceio - Botafogo SP	4:1 ✺
12.07.24	Botafogo SP - Amazonas	0:1 ✺
07.07.24	Ituano - Botafogo SP	3:2 ✺
29.06.24	Botafogo SP - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
24.06.24	Botafogo SP - Atlético Monte Azul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie B
14.07.24	Chapecoense - Brusque	1:1 ✺
05.07.24	Brusque - Ponte Preta	0:0 ✺
01.07.24	CRB Maceio - Brusque	1:1 ✺
22.06.24	Ituano - Brusque	1:1 ✺
19.06.24	Brusque - Avaí	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TTTTT

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