Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 14

Date: 7 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Referee: Goncalves da Silva K. A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Ituano		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	3.2	Watch
	2.4	2.9	2.95
	2.45	2.95	3.1
	2.54	2.96	3.28
	2.48	2.89	3.16	Watch
	2.38	3.1	3
	2.44	2.98	3.09	Watch
	2.39	2.95	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.54)	2.97 ↓ (2.98)	3.11 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
38.3%

Draw
31.6%

Botafogo SP
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

31.2%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

31.4%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Botafogo SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.1%	31.6%	47.4%

Ituano - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Botafogo SP will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo SP: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Leo Oliveira 3. Claudinho (C) 4. Marcel Scalese 6. Richard 11. Ze Eduardo 8. Miqueias 5. Rodrigo 7. Vinicius Paiva 10. Jose Aldo 9. Salatiel	1. Joao Carlos (G) 2. Wallison 3. Fabio Sanches 4. Bernardo Schappo 6. Jean Victor 10. Gustavo Bochecha 7. Patrick Brey 5. Joao Costa 11. Douglas Baggio 8. Carlos Manuel 9. Alex Sandro
Substitutes
22. Aluisio 21. Bruno Alves 17. Bruno Xavier 18. Gabriel Falcao 19. Jonathan 20. Leozinho 13. Lucas 23. Neto Berola 14. Pedro Libardoni 15. Walber 1. Wesley Borges (G)	20. Arthur Mosca 14. Ericson 18. Fillipe Soutto 13. Joao Maranini 19. Leandro Pereira 15. Matheus Costa 12. Michael (G) 16. Rafael Castro 17. Thassio 21. Willian Gabriel
Coaches
Douglas L.	Gomes P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Jose Aldo ⚽,
15', Jose Aldo 🟨,
21', Fabio Sanches ↓, Matheus Costa ↑,
24', Salatiel 🟨,
26', 2 - 0, Ze Eduardo ⚽, Salatiel (A),
31', 3 - 0, Ze Eduardo ⚽,
33', 3 - 1, Alex Sandro ⚽, Patrick Brey (A),
38', Joao Costa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 3 - 2, Rodrigo (Own goal),
63', Ze Eduardo ↓, Bruno Alves ↑,
69', Leo Oliveira 🟨,
74', Leo Oliveira ↓, Lucas ↑,
74', Rodrigo ↓, Aluisio ↑,
76', Jean Victor ↓, Rafael Castro ↑,
76', Joao Costa ↓, Leandro Pereira ↑,
76', Carlos Manuel ↓, Fillipe Soutto ↑,
80', Richard ↓, Vinicius Poz ↑,
81', Jose Aldo 🟨,
84', Douglas Baggio ↓, Willian Gabriel ↑,
85', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Gabriel Falcao ↑,
85', Fillipe Soutto 🟨,
90+4', Wallison 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ituano won 3.

Ituano is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Botafogo SP is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ituano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Botafogo SP have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Ituano: Lipe (Injury) Madison (Injury) Neto Berola (Injury) Pablo (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ituano won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 15-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
29.06.24	Ceará - Ituano	4:2 ✺
22.06.24	Ituano - Brusque	1:1 ✺
18.06.24	Guarani - Ituano	3:3 ✺
15.06.24	Ituano - Paysandu	3:5 ✺
07.06.24	Coritiba - Ituano	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTTLL
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
29.06.24	Botafogo SP - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
24.06.24	Botafogo SP - Atlético Monte Azul	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
22.06.24	Operário Ferroviario - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
19.06.24	Botafogo SP - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
16.06.24	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
04.02.24	Ituano - Botafogo SP	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
30.09.23	Ituano - Botafogo SP	1:1
06.06.23	Botafogo SP - Ituano	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.23	Botafogo SP - Ituano	2:3
31.03.22	Botafogo SP - Ituano	0:3
Brazilian Serie C
25.09.21	Ituano - Botafogo SP	0:0
25.07.21	Botafogo SP - Ituano	2:1

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