Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 5

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Brusque		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.5
	1.88	2.88	4.25
	1.93	3.05	4.84
	1.68	3.22	5.87	Watch
	1.89	2.89	4.5	Watch
	2.02	2.8	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.25)	2.94 (2.94)	4.44 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brusque
48.1%

Draw
31.2%

Ponte Preta
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

30.9%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

31.6%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brusque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brusque's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponte Preta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brusque that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponte Preta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Brusque - Ponte Preta Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Brusque (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 66. Alex Ruan 50. Bernardo 17. Clinton U. 27. Diego Mathias 2. Everton Alemao 23. Guilherme Pira 30. Jean Mangabeira 97. Mateus Pivo 9. Olavio 4. Torres J.	1. Pedro Rocha (G) 77. Bruno Lopes 35. Diego Tavares 3. Edson Rogerio 19. Gustavo Lopes 20. Joao Gabriel 62. Kevyn 27. Luiz Felipe 8. Miguel 37. Serginho 34. Wanderson
Substitutes
60. Ailton Santos 22. Andre Luiz (G) 7. Biel Fonseca 80. Danielzinho 20. Douglas Oliveira 6. Italo 21. Jhonny Lucas 11. Luizao 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 16. Roberto Rosa 29. Thiago Freitas 18. Thomaz	55. Braga G. 33. Danrlei Santos 70. Emanuel L. 18. Matheus Henrique 30. Matheus Kayser (G) 80. Pedrinho 99. Ricardo Oliveira 5. Rodrigo Souza 6. Sergio Raphael
Coaches
Franco B.	Fernandes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Diego Mathias ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bruno Lopes ↓, Ricardo Oliveira ↑,
46', 2 - 0, Guilherme Pira ⚽,
49', 2 - 1, Diego Tavares ⚽,
55', Jean Mangabeira 🟨,
61', Serginho 🟨,
61', Olavio ↓, Douglas Oliveira ↑,
61', Diego Mathias ↓, Thomaz ↑,
67', Douglas Oliveira 🟨,
73', Miguel ↓, Emanuel L. ↑,
73', Joao Gabriel ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
73', Serginho ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
79', Bernardo ↓, Roberto Rosa ↑,
82', Thomaz 🟨,
85', Gustavo Lopes ↓, Sergio Raphael ↑,
86', Clinton U. ↓, Biel Fonseca ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brusque won 2.

Recent performances by Brusque have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ponte Preta is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ponte Preta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Brusque is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Brusque won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Brusque won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Brusque - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.33%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brusque FC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
29.09.25	Brusque - Concórdia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
27.09.25	Brusque - Guarani	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
24.09.25	Concórdia - Brusque	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
21.09.25	Guarani - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
17.09.25	Chapecoense - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWLLT
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
27.09.25	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ponte Preta - Brusque	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Guarani - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
14.09.25	Ponte Preta - Brusque	1:0
17.05.25	Ponte Preta - Brusque	1:4
Brazilian Serie B
23.10.24	Ponte Preta - Brusque	2:0
05.07.24	Brusque - Ponte Preta	0:0
12.08.22	Brusque - Ponte Preta	2:1
30.04.22	Ponte Preta - Brusque	2:0
22.08.21	Ponte Preta - Brusque	3:0

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