Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+, Xsports
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Lithuania	Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
World	Triller TV+


	Braga		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.43	4.45	6.9	Watch
	1.43	4.52	8.19
	1.02	14.95	40.00	Watch
	1.46	4.3	6.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.4)	6.51 ↑ (4.55)	13.65 ↑ (7.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
76.5%

Draw
15.9%

Casa Pia
7.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.3%

20.6%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.7%

19.6%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Braga's performance.

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Braga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	0%	9.5%

Braga - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: Braga will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Braga will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hornicek L. (G) 2. Gomez V. 14. Lagerbielke G. 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 10. Zalazar R. 50. Rodrigues D. 29. Gorby 5. Lelo L. 20. Dorgeles M. 9. El Ouazzani A. 21. Horta R. (C)	22. Azevedo D. (G) 27. Kaique Rocha 4. Goulart J. 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 42. Perez S. 14. Miguel Sousa 74. Nhaga R. 18. Geraldes A. (C) 29. Livolant J. 10. Rocha Livramento D.
Substitutes
36. Bellaarouch A. (G) 41. da Rocha Y. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 77. Martinez G. 8. Moutinho J. 39. Navarro F. 81. Pascoal F. 18. Victor P. 95. Vidigal S.	33. Batista R. (G) 12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 90. Cassiano 6. Fonte J. 24. Mohamed I. 21. Morais T. 7. Nsona K. 20. Oukili Y. 17. Severina X.
Coaches
Vicens C.	Pereira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Horta R. ⚽,
8', 2 - 0, Lagerbielke G. ⚽,
42', Sousa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Miguel Sousa ↓, Nsona K. ↑,
48', 3 - 0, Dorgeles M. ⚽,
55', Goulart J. 🟨,
57', 4 - 0, Zalazar R. (Pen),
58', Gorby ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
58', Horta R. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
59', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
59', Perez S. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
70', Gomez V. ↓, da Rocha Y. ↑,
70', Lelo L. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
70', Livolant J. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
78', Nhaga R. ↓, Oukili Y. ↑,
80', Zalazar R. 🟨,
80', Mohamed I. 🟨,
81', Zalazar R. ↓, Pascoal F. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 2.

Braga is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Casa Pia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Casa Pia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Braga is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Braga: Grillitsch F. (Inactive) Niakate S. (Inactive) Noro J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Oliveira P. (Inactive) Vitor Carvalho (Inactive)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Kiki (Knee Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Prieto K. (Inactive) Tchamba D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Conte A. (Inactive) Mandic I. (Inactive) Nsona K. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Braga won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Braga - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Bragança - Braga	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Celtic - Braga	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Braga - Nacional	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WWTWL
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
03.10.25	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Moreirense - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Casa Pia - Nacional	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.05.25	Casa Pia - Braga	2:1
29.12.24	Braga - Casa Pia	1:2
05.05.24	Braga - Casa Pia	4:3
30.12.23	Casa Pia - Braga	1:3
Portuguese League Cup
01.11.23	Braga - Casa Pia	1:1
Liga Portugal
21.04.23	Casa Pia - Braga	0:1
Portuguese League Cup
03.12.22	Casa Pia - Braga	0:1

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