Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Casa Pia		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.65
	2.78	3.05	2.58	Watch
	2.87	3.21	2.67
	2.69	3.19	2.64	Watch
				Watch
	2.89	3.3	2.63	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.14)	3.19 ↓ (3.45)	2.62 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
34.3%

Draw
29.7%

Estoril Praia
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

27%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

26.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Casa Pia's form might have worsened.

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estoril Praia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Casa Pia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estoril Praia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	47.1%	29.4%

Casa Pia - Estoril Praia Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Estoril (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Estoril (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Estoril (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Estoril (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Azevedo D. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 27. Kaique Rocha 72. Larrazabal G. 42. Perez S. 74. Nhaga R. 43. Sousa D. 29. Livolant J. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 14. Miguel Sousa	1. Robles J. (G) 44. Boma K. 4. Ferro 25. Bacher F. 22. Carvalho P. 7. Lominadze N. 10. Holsgrove J. 24. Amaral P. 99. Guitane R. 9. Marques A. 12. Carvalho J. (C)
Substitutes
12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 8. Brito R. 90. Cassiano 4. Goulart J. 24. Mohamed I. 21. Morais T. 20. Oukili Y. 1. Sequeira P. (G) 9. Svensson M.	14. Begraoui Y. 90. Brito T. 17. Garcia F. 19. Lacximicant A. 55. Parente T. 45. Patrick de Paula 21. Pizzi 5. Tsoungui A. 16. Turk M. (G)
Coaches
Santana A.	Cathro I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Lominadze N. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
27', Guitane R. ↓, Patrick de Paula ↑,
28', 1 - 1, Kaique Rocha ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
34', Carvalho P. 🟨,
37', Miguel Sousa 🟨,
45', 2 - 1, Livolant J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lominadze N. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
46', Carvalho P. ↓, Lacximicant A. ↑,
46', Marques A. ↓, Begraoui Y. ↑,
51', Amaral P. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
59', Carvalho J. 🟨,
63', Miguel Sousa ↓, Morais T. ↑,
73', Nhaga R. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
73', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
77', Azevedo D. 🟨,
80', Sousa D. 🟨,
84', 2 - 2, Carvalho J. ⚽,
88', Kaique Rocha ↓, Goulart J. ↑,
88', Perez S. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
90+1', Ferro 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Kiki (Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Prieto K. (Inactive) Tchamba D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Estoril: Jandro (Inactive) Xeka (Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Conte A. (Inactive) Kaique Rocha (Injury) Mandic I. (Inactive) Nsona K. (Injury) Oukili Y. (Injury) Sequeira P. (Injury) Severina X. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estoril: Costa G. (Inactive) Sanchez R. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:19. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.6:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Moreirense - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Casa Pia - Nacional	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LTWLL
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Estoril Praia - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Estoril Praia - AVS	3:1 ✺
06.09.25	Estoril Praia - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Tondela - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
29.04.25	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	1:3
15.12.24	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	0:2
08.04.24	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	0:0
10.11.23	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	4:0
21.05.23	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	2:2
16.01.23	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
23.04.21	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	1:1

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