Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Denmark	Sport Live
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Sporting Lisbon		Braga

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.47	4.4	6
	1.46	4.7	5.9
	1.46	4.93	6.52
	1.19	6.58	14.26	Watch
	1.47	4.45	6.15	Watch
	1.45	4.6	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.52)	4.86 ↑ (4.27)	7.42 ↑ (5.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
67.4%

Draw
19.7%

Braga
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

21.9%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

21.1%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Lisbon's performance.

Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95%	0%	5%

Sporting Lisbon - Braga Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Sporting (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Braga (4.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (19 of 19 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 20 - 95.2%). Braga (votes: 1 - 4.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 13. Vagiannidis G. 6. Debast Z. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 5. Morita H. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 7. Quenda G. 17. Trincao 8. Goncalves P. 97. Suarez L.	1. Hornicek L. (G) 2. Gomez V. 14. Lagerbielke G. 4. Niakate S. 5. Lelo L. 27. Grillitsch F. 6. Vitor Carvalho 8. Moutinho J. 10. Zalazar R. 18. Victor P. 21. Horta R. (C)
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 10. Catamo G. 26. Diomande O. 22. Fresneda I. 89. Ioannidis F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 72. Quaresma E. 12. Virginia J. (G)	26. Arrey-Mbi B. 36. Bellaarouch A. (G) 41. da Rocha Y. 9. El Ouazzani A. 29. Gorby 77. Martinez G. 39. Navarro F. 50. Rodrigues D. 95. Vidigal S.
Coaches
Borges R.	Vicens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Suarez L. ⚽,
39', Goncalves P. 🟨,
45', Suarez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
54', Moutinho J. ↓, Gorby ↑,
64', Trincao ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
64', Morita H. ↓, Kochorashvili G. ↑,
73', Suarez L. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
73', Gomez V. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
73', Niakate S. ↓, Arrey-Mbi B. ↑,
75', Vitor Carvalho 🟨,
76', Navarro F. 🟨,
77', Zalazar R. 🟨,
80', Debast Z. 🟨,
83', Lelo L. ↓, Vidigal S. ↑,
90', Vagiannidis G. ↓, Fresneda I. ↑,
90', Quenda G. ↓, Catamo G. ↑,
90+3', Martinez G. 🟨,
90+6', Hjulmand M. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 1, Zalazar R. (Pen),
90+11', Grillitsch F. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 2.

Sporting is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Braga has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sporting is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Braga: Dorgeles M. (Inactive) Gabriel Moscardo (Inactive) Noro J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Oliveira P. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Sporting: Quaresma E. (Injury)

We predict that Sporting will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 41:18. (average 2.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 27:5. (average 2.7:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Napoli - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Estoril Praia - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
22.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Kairat	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.09.25	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWWW
- SC Braga
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Celtic - Braga	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Braga - Nacional	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Braga - Feyenoord	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
20.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Braga - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
07.04.25	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	1:1
10.11.24	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	2:4
11.02.24	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	5:0
Portuguese League Cup
23.01.24	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	1:0
Liga Portugal
03.09.23	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
01.02.23	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	5:0
Portuguese League Cup
19.12.22	Sporting Lisbon - Braga	5:0

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