Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life
Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter, Meridiano


	Braga		Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	6
	1.46	3.95	6.4
	1.02	13.97	25.00	Watch
	1.48	4.49	6.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (2.08)	6.69 ↑ (3.63)	10.99 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
75.5%

Draw
15.2%

Nacional
9.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

25.2%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

25%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+31.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Braga's performance.

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-31.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Braga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+21.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Braga - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Bellaarouch A. (G) 6. Vitor Carvalho 14. Lagerbielke G. 4. Niakate S. 2. Gomez V. 29. Gorby 8. Moutinho J. 77. Martinez G. 21. Horta R. (C) 39. Navarro F. 18. Victor P.	37. Lucas Franca (G) 16. Nunez A. 38. Ze Vitor 34. Leo Santos 5. Jose Gomes 28. Liziero 88. Matheus Dias 15. Labidi C. 11. Paulinho Boia 8. Baeza M. 9. Ramirez J. (C)
Substitutes
26. Arrey-Mbi B. 20. Dorgeles M. 9. El Ouazzani A. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 5. Lelo L. 15. Oliveira P. 50. Rodrigues D. 12. Sa T. (G) 95. Vidigal S.	. Deivison 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 17. Nourani M. 26. Silva J. 18. Sousa A. 24. Vallier L. 30. Watts

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Horta R. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Horta R. ⚽,
32', Jose Gomes 🟨,
44', 3 - 0, Lagerbielke G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Horta R. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
46', Labidi C. ↓, Nourani M. ↑,
54', 3 - 1, Lagerbielke G. ⚽,
59', 3 - 2, Ramirez J. ⚽,
64', Victor P. ↓, Arrey-Mbi B. ↑,
67', Nunez A. ↓, Deivison ↑,
69', Deivison 🟨,
72', Martinez G. 🟨,
73', Nourani M. 🟨,
76', Martinez G. ↓, Lelo L. ↑,
76', Moutinho J. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
79', Ze Vitor 🟨,
84', Baeza M. ↓, Watts ↑,
86', 4 - 2, Gomez V. ⚽,
88', Navarro F. ↓, El Ouazzani A. ↑,
90+1', Lelo L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Braga has had a series of home games.

In this match, Braga is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Braga won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 47:17. (average 2.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 27:9. (average 2.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Braga - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Braga - Genk	3:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.11.25	Porto - Braga	2:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Braga - Santa Clara	5:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.10.25	Braga - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLWW
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Nacional - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Estoril Praia - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Rebordelo - Nacional	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Nacional - Moreirense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Braga - Nacional	0:1
21.02.25	Braga - Nacional	1:0
20.09.24	Nacional - Braga	0:3
Portuguese League Cup
22.12.23	Nacional - Braga	1:3
Taça de Portugal
25.04.23	Braga - Nacional	2:2
12.04.23	Nacional - Braga	0:5
Liga Portugal
28.02.21	Nacional - Braga	1:2

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