Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium (Braintree)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Braintree Town		Gateshead

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3.2
	2.05	3.65	3.05
	2.02	3.91	3.32
	3.29	3.75	1.98	Watch
	2.11	3.52	3.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.15)	3.67 ↑ (3.4)	2.95 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braintree Town
41.4%

Draw
26.1%

Gateshead
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

27.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

25.3%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braintree Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Gateshead has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braintree Town than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gateshead than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Braintree Town - Gateshead Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Braintree (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Terry M. (G) 16. Babic G. 7. Blackwell T. 21. Clayton R. 33. Davis O. 2. Francis-Clarke A. 4. Langston G. (C) 8. Marshall-Miranda M. 17. Pinnington J. 6. Vennings J. 38. Works T.	1. Brooks T. (G) 7. Adom K. 10. Butterfield J. 22. Edwards C. 3. Ferguson D. 21. Hurst K. 20. John F. 14. Nouble F. 26. Pani C. 5. Richardson K. (C) 31. Williams B.
Substitutes
14. Akinde J. 19. Hockey F. 18. Kamara S. 5. Omrore M. 24. Terry F. 39. Thorpe E.	35. Bone C. 32. Chapman H. 6. Flint W. 17. Home J. 13. Leech P. (G) 16. Lowery L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Adom K. ⚽, Williams B. (A),
17', 0 - 2, Hurst K. ⚽, Edwards C. (A),
33', Davis O. ↓, Terry F. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Ferguson D. 🟨,
60', 1 - 2, Works T. ⚽,
61', Hurst K. ↓, Chapman H. ↑,
72', Williams B. 🟨,
77', Babic G. ↓, Hockey F. ↑,
84', Home J. ↓, Flint W. ↑,
88', Blackwell T. ↓, Akinde J. ↑,
88', Pinnington J. ↓, Thorpe E. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 19 and 18)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braintree won 3.

In recent matches, Braintree has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gateshead is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Gateshead may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Braintree could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Braintree won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Braintree won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Braintree Town - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.99%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Braintree Town
English National League
24.09.25	Boston United - Braintree Town	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Eastleigh - Braintree Town	1:3 ✺
English National League Cup
16.09.25	Braintree Town - Nottingham Forest U21	1:0 ✺
English National League
13.09.25	Braintree Town - York City	2:3 ✺
06.09.25	Rochdale - Braintree Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWLL
- Gateshead
English National League
23.09.25	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Gateshead - Halifax Town	1:2 ✺
English National League Cup
17.09.25	Gateshead - Middlesbrough U21	0:2 ✺
English National League
13.09.25	Wealdstone - Gateshead	2:2 ✺
06.09.25	Woking - Gateshead	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
18.03.25	Gateshead - Braintree Town	1:3
30.11.24	Braintree Town - Gateshead	2:2
30.03.19	Braintree Town - Gateshead	2:0
15.09.18	Gateshead - Braintree Town	0:1
17.12.16	Gateshead - Braintree Town	1:1
10.09.16	Braintree Town - Gateshead	1:4
16.04.16	Gateshead - Braintree Town	2:3

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